2018 U.S. Economic Outlook

Overview (Part 1 of 7):  Jobenomics deals with the economics of small business and job creation.  In addition to our monthly reports, this report deals with Jobenomics view of the state of the U.S. economy and how our economy might fair in 2018.  As indicated in this 60-page analysis, Jobenomics sees as many upsides as downsides to our continued economic prosperity.  As shown below on Jobenomics 2018 U.S. Economic Outlook Matrix, Jobenomics predicts an equal probability (33.3%) for economic improvement, maintaining the status quo, or an economic slowdown.

Today, our economy is booming, and the future looks sunny.  However, storm clouds are billowing on the horizon.  Discordance in Washington, turbulence in our mainland, and a multitude of foreign threats portend to upset our economy.  The Trump Administration’s bold economic and job creation vision (i.e., sustained 4% GDP growth and 25 million new jobs) and recent tax reform legislation should help propel the economy forward.  On the other hand, governance, domestic and international disruptions could make the U.S. economy falter.  2018 will be an exciting year.

Jobenomics 2018 U.S. Economic Outlook Matrix

 

Download Complete 60-Page Document on Jobenomics Library

Background Material.  Most economists rely on empirical macroeconomic economic, business and labor force models to derive their 2018 forecast.  Taken alone, these three empirical models indicated that 2018 would be one of the best years economically in recent U.S. history.  In addition to these traditional metrics, Jobenomics adds three other more subjective areas (governance, domestic and international disruptors) to its 2018 outlook equation.  Any economic analysis without a critique of global-macro (strategic) trends and policy-making is incomplete.  These three subjective global-macro trends can threaten U.S. economic growth, and in worst case scenarios could create a financial downturn or crisis.  The weighted projections shown by the black dots are subjective but are backed by comprehensive Jobenomics research.  The 175-page Jobenomics Comprehensive U.S. Labor Force & Employment Report and the 115-page Jobenomics Comprehensive U.S. Labor Force & Unemployment Report contain supporting documentation that can be downloaded free of charge.

The Jobenomics 2018 Economic Outlook attempts to be apolitical to the maximum extent possible since the Jobenomics National Grassroots Movement is a non-partisan movement supported by Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike.  Regarding economic, community, small business and workforce development, this analysis is equally laudatory or critical of today’s policy-makers as it is with previous administrations.  Restoration of the American Dream for those at the base of our socioeconomic pyramid deserves much more attention than it receives from government officials.  Mass-producing small businesses and jobs will not only elevate the status of the underemployed and unemployed but will provide more career opportunities for middle-class workers and protect the gains for those who already achieved financial well-being.

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