Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis: Q3 2016

Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis: Q3 2016

By: Chuck Vollmer

Click to Download this Employment Report

Download Unemployment and other reports at: http://Jobenomics.com

19 November 2016

Jobenomics reports on U.S. unemployment and employment statistics, characteristics and trends.  This 140-page Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis: Q3 2016 report focuses on the employed and working population, U.S. labor force gains, economic growth, income opportunity, contingent workforce, education and training, workfare, and city and state initiatives.  The top three conclusions are:

  1. Near-term economic and employment outlook is positive.
  2. Mid-term economic and employment outlook is troublesome.
  3. Long-term challenges to economic and labor force growth include stemming voluntary workforce departures, dealing with contingent workforce expansion, improving sclerotic GDP growth, adjusting the population/workforce imbalance, providing better income opportunity and wages, and increasing the number of small businesses and startups.

The 70-page Jobenomics U.S. Unemployment Analysis: Q3 2016 report focuses on the unemployed and underemployed, labor force losses, economic sustainability, income inequality, voluntary workforce departures and non-working population, welfare, and the small business creation solution.

to

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Current State of the U.S. Labor Force.  This chart is a snapshot the current state of the U.S. labor force in terms of current jobs in gray, new jobs in green and job losses in red.

current-us-employment-job-gains-and-job-losses

In general terms, the U.S. labor force is in a much better position today than it was in during the Great Recession.  Seven private sector service-providing industries employ 71.2% of all U.S. workers (102,954,000) jobs, followed by federal, state and local governments that employ 15.3% of the workforce (22,181,000) jobs and by the three private sector goods-producing industries that employ 13.5% of the workforce (19,612,000).  Job gains occurred in all 10 private sector industries this decade.  Job losses occurred at all three levels of government (federal, state and local) this decade.

Positive Labor Force Trends.  Employment and economic data were positive over the last quarter.  Three areas are noteworthy: net labor force gains and losses, private sector service-providing industry growth, and continued small business strength.

  • Labor Force Gains and Losses. Between 1 January 2010 and 1 October 2016, the United States created 14,973,000 new jobs with a net gain of 15,274,000 in the private sector and a net loss of 301,000 in government employment.  During Q3 2016, 575,000 citizens entered the labor force, 333,000 fewer citizens were enrolled in the Not-in-Labor-Force (abled-bodied adults that chose not to work) for a net gain of 980,000, which was slightly offset by an additional 156,000 more citizens joining the ranks of the officially unemployed.
  • Service-Providing Industry Growth. Private sector service-providing industry employment continues to grow now employing 103 million Americans.  20 million are employed by private sector goods-producing industries and 22 million are employed by government (federal, state and local, not including the Armed Forces and institutionalized citizens.  88% of all new jobs this decade were created by the seven industries in the service-providing sector.  5% of all new jobs were produced by the four leading service-providing industries (Professional & Business Services; Education & Health Services; Trade, Transportation & Utilities; Leisure & Hospitality).  Manufacturing and Construction contributed 5.2% and 6.6%, respectively.
  • Small Business Strength. 8% of all Americans are now employed by small businesses that created 77.6% of all new jobs this decade.  In the last month of Q3 2016 (September), small businesses created 58.4% of all new jobs, which is good but substantially lower than the last month of previous quarters: 85.4% in Q2 2016 (June) and 80.6% in Q1 2016 (March).

Negative Labor Force Trends.  Positive labor force trends are offset by six negative trends that threaten economic growth and stability.  These trends include voluntary workforce departures, contingent workforce expansion, sclerotic GDP growth, population/workforce imbalance, low wages/income and declining business startups.

  • Voluntary Workforce Departures. In Q3 2016, 333,000 fewer people were enrolled in the Not-in-Labor-Force category (voluntary departures of able-bodied adult workers who chose not to work).  Since 2010, 14,973,000 labor force gains offset by 10,371,000 labor force losses by voluntary departures.  It is important to note that these gains have occurred during a 6 3/4-year period free of any major U.S. financial crisis, which is not likely to continue in the foreseeable future. Since year 2000 through Q3 2016, 25,529,000 able-bodied workers voluntarily departed the U.S. labor force versus 13,967,000 workers who entered the labor force for a net loss of 11,562,000 workers.  It is also important to note that this net loss does not include the number of unemployed (2.3 million more people are unemployed in 2016 than 2000) or population growth (42 million additional Americans today compared to 2000).
  • Contingent Workforce Expansion. Contingent workers are defined by the U.S. government as “nonstandard” workers who work part-time by necessity (temporary and day workers) or by choice (freelancers, independent contractors and the self-employed).  Today, the contingent workforce is approximately 61,000,000 employed Americans or 40% of the total employed workforce.  By 2030, this number will grow to 80,000,000 or 50% of the U.S. employed workforce—a trend that is largely unknown to U.S. policy-makers and the American public.
  • Sclerotic GDP Growth. Most economists believe that economic growth depends on employment and GDP growth.  The ideal rate for U.S. GDP growth is 2% to 3%.  Anything less than 2% is considered sclerotic growth, which makes the U.S. economy vulnerable to financial downturns.  During the post-WWII recovery, U.S. GDP grew at an average rate of 3.5% which created tens of millions of new jobs each decade.  Since 2000, U.S. GDP averaged 1.76%.  During the post-recession recovery period from 2010 through Q3 2016, U.S. GDP averaged 2.1%.  In Q1 and Q2 2016, U.S. GDP grew by an abysmal 0.8% and 1.4% respectively.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advanced” estimate for Q3 2016 is 2.9% but many experts forecast that the Q3 GDP is likely to be downgraded to around 2.1%.  GDP for the entire 2016 year is likely to be between 1.4% and 1.8% (sclerotic growth) assuming no major financial or major international crises, which is a bold assumption considering today’s turbulent and volatile economic conditions.
  • Population/Workforce Imbalance.  As of 1 October 2016, out of a U.S. population of 325 million, 113 million private sector workers support 32 million government workers and contractors, 94 million able-bodied people who can work but chose not to work, 70 million who cannot work, and 16 million unemployed and underemployed.  The U.S. economy is not sustainable with only 35% supporting an overhead of 65%.  The growing contingent labor force, which consists of mostly lower paid wage earners, makes the overhead burden even more precarious.  More people earning livable wages and having greater discretionary income must be productively engaged in the labor force for the U.S. economy to flourish.
  • Low Wages/Income. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2015 Annual Social and Economic (ASEC) Supplement, out of a total of 160 million American workers 15-years old and over with earnings, 72% (115 million) were below mean income and 28% (45 million) were above mean income of $54,964 for full-time workers.  If the 159 million adult citizens with no reported income were included, an astounding 86% of Americans make below average (mean) income.  This imbalance is much larger than most people perceive and is a major contributor to the social unrest being exhibited today.
  • Declining Business Startups. Business startups are the seed corn of the U.S. economy.  Without the planting and fertilization of these seedlings the fields of American commerce would remain fallow.  Unfortunately, small businesses and the startups are faltering.  The United States is now creating startup businesses at historically low rates, down from 16.5% of all firms in 1977 to 8.0% in 2014.  According to the Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. government data, “If the U.S. were creating new firms at the same rate as in the 1980s, that would be the equivalent of more than 200,000 companies and 1.8 million jobs a year.”[1]

Jobenomics Q3 Assessment.  While recent labor force gains have been positive, negative employment trends, coupled with the next financial downturn, threaten the U.S. economy and its labor force.  From a Jobenomics perspective, job creation is the number one issue facing the U.S. in regard to economic growth, sustainment and prosperity.  Jobs do not create jobs, businesses do, especially small businesses.  Unfortunately, America is focused on big business and government employment solutions that have not been very effective growing the U.S. labor force.

Jobenomics is a strong advocate of big business and believes that a robust industrial base is paramount to American prosperity and security.  Big business, the anchor tenant of the U.S. economy, is on an opposing track regarding job creation and is unlikely to create a significant amount of net new jobs in the foreseeable future due to automation of routine manual and cognitive tasks, foreign outsourcing and increased usage of domestic contingent workers.

Government can play a significant support role in small business creation, especially if they underwrite the mass-production of highly-scalable startups in the same way they supported the homebuilding and mortgage industries over the last fifty years via a number of government sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Small business creation is unquestionably the best way to create tens of millions of new jobs.  Not only is this true during today’s post-Great Recession recovery period, but during the Great Recession.

  • Post-Great Recession Job Creation Comparisons (1 January 2010 to 1 October 2016). Over the last 6 ¾ years in this decade, small businesses created 77.6% of all new American jobs. [2]
    • Small businesses (less than 499 employees) created 3.5-times more jobs as large businesses (over 500 employees), 13,752,995 versus 3,975,020 respectively.
    • Micro businesses (less than 19 employees) created 4-times more jobs than very large institutions (over 1,000 employees), 3,863,425 versus 2,738,789 respectively.
  • Pre-Great Recession Job Creation Comparisons (1 October 2006 to 1 October 2016). Exactly 10 years ago (prior to the onslaught of the Great Recession) to today, small businesses created 96.4% of all new American jobs.
    • Small businesses (less than 499 employees) created 9-times more jobs as large businesses (over 500 employees), 7,327,092 versus 272,718 respectively.
    • Micro businesses (less than 19 employees) created 9-times more jobs than very large institutions (over 1,000 employees), 2,875,545 versus 418,771 new jobs.

Based on this data, one can safely conclude that small business is truly the engine of U.S. job creation in both recessionary and non-recessionary environments.  However, compared to the last 10-year period the most recent 6 ¾-year period, the small business engine has slowed from producing 26.9-times to 3.5-times as many jobs.  A large part of this dramatic difference in ratios is due to massive big business downsizing and outsourcing of jobs during the recession.  Another explanation involves today’s burdensome regulatory and adverse lending environment that is making small businesses harder to start and grow.

The U.S. economy cannot be sustained by 113 million (35%) working citizens supporting an overhead of 212 million (65%) non-working citizens.  More people must be productively engaged in the labor force for the U.S. economy to flourish.  A vibrant labor force depends on a well-trained, disciplined, and engaged labor force.  The antidote to unemployment and voluntary workforce departures is employment and meaningful career opportunities.

New small, emerging and self-employed businesses could create 20 million new jobs within a decade, if properly incentivized and supported.  Three prominent areas of focus are: filling 6.1 million unfilled U.S. job openings, and exploiting the 10s of millions of new jobs generated by Energy Technology and Network Technology Revolutions.  If Jobenomics can help create thousands of highly-scalable small businesses, America writ-large can facilitate the creation of millions of small businesses that would transform our economy.

If American policy-makers and decision-leaders are serious about revitalizing the economy and reversing the eroding middle-class, they must aggressively grow the labor force, reduce voluntary workforce departures, and address contingent workforce and below mean income issues.  As discussed herein, Jobenomics believes that the place to start is with demographics with the greatest need and potential (i.e., women, minorities, new workforce entrants and the growing cadre of poor white males).  Jobenomics suggests that policy-makers, in both parties, should make solutions to these labor force challenges their top priority.

Jobenomics deals with economics of business and job creation.  The Jobenomics National Grassroots Movement’s goal is to facilitate an environment that will create 20 million new middle-class U.S. jobs within a decade.  The Movement has a following of an estimated 15 million people.  The Jobenomics website is now averaging about 800,000 hits (80,000 page views) per month, which is 400% higher than this time last year, which signals a high level of interest from the general public on mass-production of small business and jobs at the base of America’s socioeconomic pyramid.

About Jobenomics.

Jobenomics (Jobs + economics) deals with economics of business and job creation.  The Jobenomics National Grassroots Movement’s goal is to facilitate an environment that will create 20 million new middle-class U.S. jobs within a decade.  The Movement has a following of an estimated 15 million people.  The Jobenomics website now averages 800,000 hits (80,000 page views) per month, which is 400% higher than the year prior.  Jobenomics reports include quarterly employment and unemployment analyses, and specialty reports on the U.S. labor force, emerging U.S. and global business and labor force trends, and economic growth, sustainability and security.

While Jobenomics addresses big business and government employment trends, its principal focus is on highly-scalable small and self-employed businesses that employ the vast majority of Americans and create the vast amount of new jobs.  Jobenomics has six state and city initiatives that are led by community leaders to mass-produce highly-scalable small businesses and jobs.  To accelerate small business creation, Jobenomics is working with community leaders to promulgate local workfare initiatives, implement community-based business generators to mass-produce startup businesses, and provide workforce skills-based training, certification and funding programs.

Jobenomics prioritizes its efforts on citizens at the base of America’s socioeconomic pyramid with emphasis on engaging more women, minorities, youth (Gen Z/Y) and the working poor in the business and employment process.  While Jobenomics is designed as a U.S. small business and job creation movement, other nations expressed interest in starting similar movements.

[1] Wall Street Journal, Sputtering Startups Weigh on U.S. Economic Growth, 23 October 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/sputtering-startups-weigh-on-u-s-economic-growth-1477235874?mod=djem10point

[2] ADP, National Employment Report, Historical Data, http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

 

 

2016 State of the U.S. Labor Force

2016 State of the U.S. Labor Force

By: Chuck Vollmer

11 January 2016

Download a copy of this report at:

 2016 U.S. Labor Force State-of-the-Union 11 Jan 2015

Executive Summary.  To get a true picture of the 2016 state of the U.S. labor force, one must examine all three labor force categories reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employed, Unemployed and Not-in-Labor-Force) as opposed to focusing on the “official” Unemployed rate known as the U3 rate, which represents only 2% of the U.S. population or 5% of the U.S. civilian labor force.  While Americans should be pleased that the U3 rate has dropped from its post Great Recession 10% peak to 5% today, America should concentrate on the combined non-working Not-in-Labor-Force and total unemployed (U6) population that encompasses 34% of the U.S. population.

US Labor Force Trends 2000 to 2016

 

From January 2000 to January 2016, the number of citizens Employed rose by 11%, Not-in-Labor Force by 37% and U6 Unemployed by 57%.  Since the end of the Great Recession in 2010 through 2015, Unemployment dropped by 40% but voluntary workforce departures continued a steady exodus reaching a high watermark of 94 million able-bodied adults who choose not to work.  If this trend remains unabated, Jobenomics forecasts that America’s able-bodied, not-working population could equal its working population by the mid-2020s, or sooner if the United States slips into recession.

By not including the able-bodied, not-working population in State of the Union deliberations, policy-makers play a statistical shell game with American citizens who cannot be expected to comprehend the intricacies of labor force statistics.   Sooner or later, the American people will figure out that it is theoretically possible for the United States to have a zero rate of unemployment while simultaneously having zero people employed in the labor force.  The reason for this disquieting statement involves how government measures unemployment.  To be classified as unemployed, one must be looking for work.  Able-bodied Americans who quit looking and voluntarily depart the workforce are accounted in the Not-in-Labor-Force category—a category that is generally never mentioned in politics or the media.

While Americans should be pleased that employment is gradually increasing and the unemployment rolls are dropped significantly from Great Recession highs, they should be alarmed by exodus of tens of millions of able-bodied American adults to the netherworld of public/familial dependency and alternative lifestyles that harm economic growth and place greater burden on working and taxpaying Americans.

Jobenomics 2016 State of the Union’s Labor Force Assessment.[1]  As of 1 January 2016, out of a total U.S. population of 322,810,000[2], there are 70,874,000 citizens that cannot work (22% of the population consisting mainly of children, caretakers, retired, disabled, institutionalized and active duty members of the armed forces) and 251,936,000 citizens in the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (78% of the population consisting of all persons in the Civilian Labor Force and Not-in-Labor-Force categories that are 16 years of age and older and not inmates of mental or penal institutions or military active duty).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the number of citizens in the Civilian Labor Force (persons classified as Employed or Unemployed) at 157,833,000 (49% of the U.S. population) and in the Not-in-Labor-Force citizens at 94,610,000 (29% of the population).

Within the Civilian Labor Force, the BLS reports on the total number Employed—currently 149,929,000 or 46% of the population—and six unemployment categories as shown below.  The most highly reported unemployment category is the U3 “Official” Unemployment category of 7,891,000 unemployed Americans (5.0% of the Civilian Labor Force or 2% of the overall population).  For this report, Jobenomics typically uses, for reasons explained herein, the U6 Unemployment category that consists of 15,625 000 citizens (9.9% of the Civilian Labor Force or 5% of the overall U.S. population).

URates

 

According to BLS, the basic concepts involving the U.S. labor force are relatively straightforward:

  • People with jobs are employed.
  • People are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.  Marginally employed and underemployed personnel, who are actively looking for work, are reported as a subset of the Unemployed, and generally include part-time workers who work less than 35 hours per week.
  • Able-bodied adults who are neither Employed nor Unemployed are not in the labor force.  Those who have no job and are no longer looking for a job are accounted in the Not-in-Labor-Force category that includes people (over 16 years and older), or so-called “discouraged” workers, who choose not to work.

From a Jobenomics perspective, Not-in-Labor-Force personnel should be classified as unemployed in the same manner that marginalized and underemployed citizens are included in the U6 Unemployment category.  Determination whether a person is counted as unemployed should not depend on subjective, and often whimsical, survey questions used to appraise people’s employment intensions.

The four survey questions that government interviewers use to record a person as unemployed include (the bolded words are emphasized when read by the interviewers according to the BLS): [3]

  • Do you currently want a job, either full or part time?
  • What is the main reason you were not looking for work during the last 4 weeks?
  • Did you look for work at any time during the last 12 months?
  • Last week, could you have started a job if one had been offered?”

If a person answers yes to all four questions, that person is considered Unemployed.  If the answer is no to any of these questions, that person is enrolled in the Not-in-Labor-Force category.

Jobenomics’ 2016 State of the Union’s Labor Force Assessment.   To get accurate numbers in today’s labor force, Jobenomics uses a combination of Total Employed, U6 Unemployed and Not-in-Labor-Force obtained from the BLS Employment Situation Summary Report, Tables A-1 and B-1.

Jobenomics contends that able-bodied Americans who can work but don’t work, regardless if they are looking or not, should be considered unemployed for the same reason that “discouraged”, “marginally attached” and “part-time workers for economic reasons” are included in the U6 unemployment category.  The reason why the Not-in-Labor-Force and U6 categories should be examined collectively is for governmental transparency and accountability.  Sooner or later, the American public will figure out that it is theoretically possible for the United States to have a zero rate of unemployment while simultaneously having zero people employed in the labor force.  The reason for this disquieting statement involves how government measures unemployment.  To be classified as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work.  Able-bodied Americans who are no longer looking are accounted in the obscure, under-reported and arbitrary Not-in-Labor-Force category.  A combination of the two categories gives policy-makers and the public a truer picture of the “functionally” unemployed.

In terms of the President’s State of the Union Address on 12 January 2016 and the Republican response, it will be interesting to hear if the dialogue revolves around the U3 “official” unemployment rate and the rate of employment expansion during the post-recession recovery period.  From a Jobenomics perspective, resolving the Not-in-Labor-Force challenge is a much more important issue regarding the state of our union, the health of our economy and vitality of our labor force.

Year 2000 Through 2015 U.S. Labor Force Gains/Losses.  From the beginning of year 2000 through 2015, the net loss to the U.S. labor force totaled 18.7 million people.

Year 2000-2015 US Labor Force Gains Losses

Employment grew from 130.8 million to 143.2 million for a gain of 12.5 million workers.

During the same period, the combined cadre of unemployed and voluntary departures increased from 78.6 million to 109.7 million for a loss of 31.1 million potentially productive workers.

It is also important to note that the U.S. population grew by 40 million people since year 2000—a 15% increase from 2000 through 2015.  To understand the effect of population growth, one must look at the BLS’ Employment-to-Population Ratio that is at its lowest level in 30 years.  The Employment-to-Population Ratio would be much lower if not for working women who were not engaged in the U.S. labor force in the 1970s as they are today.  For more information on this, go to http://Jobenomics.com.

The principle source of employment growth since the beginning of this century has been in the private sector that created 11.0 million new jobs (88% growth or 5.5% growth rate per year)  followed by government that created 1.5 million new jobs (12% growth or 0.75% growth rate per year).

Within the private sector, the seven service-providing industries (professional and business services; education and health services; trade, transportation and utilities; financial activities; leisure and hospitality; information; and other services) produced 100% of the jobs growth during the period with 15.9 million new jobs, or growth rate of 1 million new jobs per year.  The three goods-producing industries (manufacturing, construction and mining/logging) lost 4.9 million jobs during the period.  Jobenomics forecasts that the goods-producing industries will not produce a significant amount of net new jobs in the foreseeable future regardless of amount attention it receives and political rhetoric.  For more information why, see http://Jobenomics.com.

Year 2010 Through 2015 U.S. Labor Force Gains/Losses.  From the beginning of year 2010 through 2015, the post Great Recession recovery period managed by the Obama Administration, generated a net gain of 13.8 million people in the U.S. labor force.

Year 2010-2015 US Labor Force Gains Losses

Employment grew from 129.7 million to 143.2 million for a gain of 13.6 million workers.  During the same period, the combined cadre of unemployed and voluntary departures remained virtually the same (110.0 million in year 2010 versus 109.7 million as of December 2015) with reductions of the number of unemployed being replaced by voluntary departures.

The principle source of employment growth year 2010 through 2015 has been in the private sector that created 14.0 million new jobs (13% growth or 2.2% growth rate per year)  followed by government that lost 0.5 million new jobs (a negative 2% growth or 0.37% growth rate per year).

Within the private sector, the seven service-providing industries produced 87% of the jobs growth during the period with 12.2 million new jobs, or growth rate of 2 million new jobs per year.  The three goods-producing industries also generated 1.9 million new jobs during the period, or 13% of the new jobs generated during the period.

Private sector service-providing industries and small businesses have been work horses of the economic recovery and principle sources of new jobs.  Today, private sector businesses employ 85% of the U.S. labor force, of which 100,590,000 Americans (70.9%) have service-providing jobs and 19,651,000 (13.7%) have goods-producing jobs.  As reported by the ADP National Employment Report[4], which surveys 400,000 U.S. businesses each month, small businesses created over 3.5 times as many jobs as big businesses in the last six years, 10.5 million versus 3.0 million respectively.

Over the last six years, the highly publicized “official” U3 unemployment rate was cut in half, from 10% to 5%, with a lot of fanfare.  Similarly, the “total” U6 unemployment rate fell by 43%, from 17.3% to 9.9%, with a reduction of 10.6 million people in the U6 category.   However, many of these formerly unemployed simply quit looking for work and were recounted in the BLS Not-in-Labor-Force category that grew by 10.3 million people, essentially wiping out the positive U6 gains.

From a policy-making perspective, the 94.1 million Americas who are no longer looking for work needs significantly more attention than the 15.6 million Americans who are still looking or are underemployed.   The current BLS Employment Situation Summary Report states that 95% of the Americans in today’s Not-in-Labor-Force “do not want a job now”.[5]   Why should they?  America provides generous welfare and means-adjusted programs that are not tied to workfare like the most generous European nations require.  Rather than hiring, U.S. corporations are preoccupied using profits on mergers and acquisition, expanding overseas and relocating corporate headquarters in foreign countries as a tax-saving measure.  Learning new skills to compete for 5.1 million open America jobs[6] takes lots of effort, making it much easier to drop out of the labor force, go on the dole and pursue alternative ways of living.

Year 2015 U.S. Labor Force Gains/Losses.  In 2015, the U.S. labor force suffered a net gain of 3.3 million.

Year 2015 US Labor Force Gains Losses

Employment grew from 140.6 million to 143.2 million workers for a gain of 2.7 million jobs, which was supplemented by a gain of 0.6 million in the combined U6/Not-in-Labor-Force cadre, which remained at relative the same level from the beginning of the year, 110.0 million to 109.7 million respectively.  While the U6 unemployment rolls decreased by 1.9 million people, 1.2 million people quit looking for work and voluntarily departed the U.S. labor force.  Private sector service-providing industries and small businesses continued to the dominant forces in labor force expansion producing 2.4 million (90%) and 1.9 million (70%) of the 2.7 new jobs created during the year.

From policy and economic growth perspectives, 2016 State of the Union deliberations should contain an order of magnitude more labor force programs oriented to service industry vitality, small business hiring incentives and small business creation than programs for big businesses and government jobs that are unlikely to create a meaningful number of new jobs.  In fact, big business is likely to downsize even further in 2016 consider the historically high number and value of corporate mergers and acquisitions, international pursuits and corporate inversions—all of which have negative consequences for U.S. labor force expansion and prosperity.  Small business expansion provides the most bang for the buck for strengthening the U.S. labor force and stemming the erosion of the American middle class.

[1] Labor force data in this document is taken from the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary Report unless otherwise footnoted.  The majority of BLS data used is from Table A-1, Household Data, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm, and Table B-1, Establishment Data, http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm.

[2] U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. and World Population Clock, http://www.census.gov/popclock/

[3] BLS, Who is not in the labor force?, http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#nilf

[4] ADP Research Institute, National Employment Report, December 2015,  http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

[5] BLS, Table A-38, Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age and sex,  retrieved 10 January 2016, http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm

[6] BLS, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report, Table 7, Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, retrieved 10 January 2016, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t07.htm

Fastest Growing Occupations

Download PDF Version: Fastest Growing Occupations – 22 Oct 2013

22 October 2013

As discussed in the latest monthly Jobenomics Employment Report, 84.3% of all new jobs this decade have been created in four of the thirteen US industry groups.  The fastest growing industry is Professional and Business Services with 2.131 million new jobs followed by Trade, Transportation and Utilities with 1.498 million; Education and Health Services with 1.385 million; and Leisure and Hospitality with 1.278 million for a grand total of 6.292 million new jobs.  This report examines these four industry groups for the fastest growing occupations in terms of jobs added and growth rate this decade.  This data is offered as a guide for those entering the labor force or planning a career.

Industry Employment Growth This Decade (10s)

Professional and Business Services.  According to the BLS, Professional and Business Services supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (NAICS 54), Management of Companies and Enterprises (NAICS 55), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (NAICS 56).  NAICS (pronounced “nakes”) is the North American Industry Classification System that is used by business and government to classify business establishments according to type of economic activity in the United States, Canada and Mexico.  The following two charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within the Professional and Business Services.

Professional and Business Services Jobs

Professional and Business Services Growth

 

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.  According to the BLS, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities  supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Wholesale Trade (NAICS 42), Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45), Transportation and Warehousing (NAICS 48-49), and Utilities (NAICS 22).  The following four charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.

Wholesale and Retail Trade Jobs

Wholesale and Retail Trade Growth

Transportation and Utilities Jobs

Transportation and Utilities Growth

Leisure and Hospitality.  According to the BLS, the Leisure and Hospitality supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (NAICS 71) and Accommodation and Food Services (NAICS 72).  The following two charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within Leisure and Hospitality.

Leisure and Hospitality Jobs

 Leisure and Hospitality Growth

Education and Health Services.  According to the BLS, the Education and Health Services supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Educational Services (NAICS 61) and Health Care and Social Assistance (NAICS 62).  The following two charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within the Education and Health Services.

Education and Health Services Jobs

Education and Health Services Growth