Jobenomics

Goal: Creating 20 Million Jobs By 2020

Jobenomics - Goal: Creating 20 Million Jobs By 2020

Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis: Q2 2015

Employment Cover Q2

 

 

Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis: Q2 2015

http://Jobenomics.com

By: Chuck Vollmer

17 July 2015

Jobenomics tracks both unemployment (Jobenomics U.S. Unemployment Analysis: Q2 2015) and employment (Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis: Q2 2015).   Download PDF version: Jobenomics U.S. Employment Analysis- Q2 2015.

Executive Summary. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) June 2015 Employment Report[1] calculates that 223,000 Americans entered the U.S. labor force.  The BLS also reported that 640,000 able-bodied Americans quit looking for work and voluntarily departed the labor force, often to some form of public or familial welfare or assistance.  Therefore, the net workforce loss was 417,000 Americans.   Over the last quarter (Q2: April, May, June 2015), a total of 477,000 people entered the U.S. labor force and 451,000 voluntarily departed, for a net gain of only 26,000 people in the labor force.  Labor force statistics are also shown covering the last year, the period since: 2010 (the Jobenomics starting point), the start of the Obama Administration in 2009 and the beginning of the 21st Century.

Labor Force Gains-Losses 2

Since the year 2000, the U.S. labor force has suffered a net loss of 13,907,000 workers.  While recent employment and unemployment trends are positive, these trends are more than offset by the number of people departing the U.S. labor force.

Goal 20 Million Net New Jobs This Decade

The United States consistently produced tens of millions of new jobs for six consecutive decades.   Then the bottom fell out in the decade of the 2000s with a loss of 1.2 million jobs.  Consequently, it is critical that significant numbers of jobs are created this decade (’10s) for the U.S. economy to prosper.  20 million new jobs by year 2020 is a reasonable goal that is supported by the Jobenomics National Grassroots Movement.  Not only has 20 million been historically achieved, but is the number needed to accommodate 16 million new labor force entrants per decade and to reduce unemployment to achieve the so-called “full employment” rate of 5%.  Based on a goal of 20 million jobs by 2020, the U.S. economy is progressing steadily upward, producing 12.2 million new jobs by the end of Q2 2015, which is a 26% shortfall based on a goal of 20 million jobs by 2020.

Today, America’s workforce is characterized by (1) a historically-high number of able-bodied citizens who voluntarily leave the labor force, (2) a historically-high number of people that work part-time, and (3) historically-low employment-to-population ratios and labor force participation rates.

321 Million

34% of all Americans financially support the rest of the country.   As of the end of Q2 2015, out of a total population of 321 million Americans, 110 million private sector workers support 32 million government workers and government contractors, 94 million able-bodied people who can work but chose not to work, 69 million who cannot work (at home caregivers, children, retired and institutionalized citizens), and 17 million unemployed and underemployed (U6 rate).   Of the 110 million, approximately 68 million individuals work full-time, 27 million are part-timers (less than 35 hours per week) and 15 million are self-employed.  The U.S. economy cannot be sustained by 34% supporting an overhead of 66%.   More people must be productively engaged in the private sector labor force for the U.S. economy to flourish.

Jobs creation involves business creation, especially small business creation.  In this decade, U.S. small businesses (less than 500 employees) created 78.7% of all new jobs.  During June 2015, U.S. small businesses created an astounding 86.7% of all new jobs.  Today, small businesses employ 77.9% of all private sector Americans with a total of 93.2 million employees—over 5 times the amount of large corporations (1000+).  Very small businesses with less than 19 employees employ 69% more than all large corporations combined (30.9M versus 18.3M).    Contrary to popular opinion, 50% of all small business startups last five years and 30% remain in business over ten years.  In addition, small business growth has outperformed medium and large businesses during the recovery from the Great Recession.

U.S. Employment Situation.  Recent US employment history is shown on the following chart.

Recent US Employment History

Prior to the Great Recession, peak employment was 138,365,000.  When President Obama took office, employment was 134,773,000 and, due to the Recession, slid to a low of 129,649,000 after the Great Recession in February 2010—a net loss of 8.7 million jobs.   Since then, the United States has recovered these lost jobs and achieved an employment peak of 141,842,000—a net gain of 12.2 million jobs from the low point.  While this is positive news, the employment growth rate has been slow compared to past recovery, and offset by massive voluntary labor force departure of discouraged citizens who simply quit looking for work (this is examined in detail in the companion Jobenomics U.S. Unemployment Analysis: Q2 2015).  This gain is also offset by population gains.  The U.S. population in 2007 was 301 million compared to 321 million today.

Total US Employment

Of the 141,842,000 employed Americans, 70.6% work in seven private sector service-providing industries.  The seven service industries are: Professional and Business Services, Education and Health Services, Financial Activities, Trade/Transport/Utilities, Leisure and Hospitality, Financial Activities, Information, and Other Services.   13.8% are employed in private sector goods-producing industries that include Manufacturing, Construction and Mining/Logging (including the oil and gas sector).  15.5% Americans work for government at federal, state and local levels.

Total Jobs Creation In The ‘10s

While the U.S. economy has enjoyed employment growth, as of July 2015, America produced only 74% (26% shortfall) as measured against the traditional benchmark of 250,000 jobs per month advocated by most economists.

Since the beginning of this decade, the U.S. private sector created 12,727,000 new jobs compared to government agencies (federal, state and local) that lost 572,000 jobs, for a net gain of 12,155,000 new jobs.

Within the private sector, service-providing industries created 10,960,000 jobs (86.1%) compared to the goods-producing industries with 1,767,000 jobs (13.9%).

Within the government sector, local government lost the majority of jobs (404,000 or 70.6% of total government job losses), mostly teachers, firefighters and police.  Federal and state governments lost 96,000 (16.8%) and 72,000 (12.6%) respectively.  Note: U.S. Armed Forces (who are also downsizing) are not included in these government figures.

US Employment Trends Since Year 2000

Since year 2000, U.S. employment and employment growth has in service-providing industries that now employ 100.4 million Americans and has grown at a rate of 28% over the last fifteen years.  Government employs 21.9 million and has grown at a rate of 9% over the same period of time.  However, government employment has decreased in the last several years and is likely to continue to do so due to budget constraints.  U.S. goods-producing industries declined 22% since year 2000, now employing 19.6 million people—matching the goods-producing industry employment levels in 1964 when the U.S. population was 180 million Americans.   In 1964, 11% of the U.S. population was employed by goods-producing industries, compared to only 6% today.

Industry Employment Growth This Decade ('10s)

As of the end of the Q2 2015, all U.S. private sector industries created jobs, where all levels of government (federal, state and local) government lost jobs.   80.4% of all net new jobs this decade were produced by four service-providing industries (Professional and Business Services; Trade, Transportation, Utilities; Education and Health Services; and Leisure and Hospitality).  Manufacturing and Construction contributed 6.8% and 5.7% to U.S. employment growth, respectively.

Contingent Workforce. The U.S. labor force is transforming from full-time to contingent workers.  The contingent workforce is comprised of part-time workers (temporary contract workers, seasonal workers, etc.) and the self-employed (consultants, independent contractors, independent professionals, freelancers, etc.).

Contingent US Labor Force

Today, contingency workers represent 30% of the U.S. workforce and are projected to increase to 40% by 2020.  40% is to be a conservative percentage given current trends in labor force gains and losses, technology and ethnology (cultural dissimilarities with new labor force entrants). Consequently, Jobenomics believes that contingent work could become the dominant (over 50%) form of labor in the U.S. workforce in the near future.

Regarding the U.S. labor force gains and losses, losses now exceed labor force gains as more and more able-bodied Americans voluntarily leave the U.S. workforce.  Disheartened citizens often become dependent on public or familial assistance as opposed to the self-sufficiency afforded by meaningful employment.  The BLS calculates the number of not-in-labor-force individuals (citizens who can work but chose not to work) has risen from 69 million in year 2000 to 94 million people today.  This does not include 69 million people (mainly children) who cannot work.  If this trend is not curtailed, the not-in-labor-force will exceed the U.S. labor force in the early 2020s (a detailed analysis is contained in the Jobenomics Unemployment Analysis: Q2 2015). Consequently, it is imperative that decision-makers take steps today to create opportunities for the contingent workforce that will motivate citizens towards workfare as opposed to welfare.

Regarding technology, two major technological revolutions are occurring today:  Energy Technology Revolution (ETR) and Network Technology Revolution (NTR).  Both have the ability to create millions of small businesses and tens of millions of net new jobs.  The ETR and NTR will be both innovative and disruptive.  Innovation introduces a new market, industry, or technology and produces something new and more efficient and seemingly worthwhile.  Disruption displaces an existing market, industry, or technology and produces something new and more efficient and seemingly worthwhile.

  • Energy Technology Revolution’s (see: http://jobenomicsblog.com/energy-technology-revolution/) technologies, processes and systems are dramatically changing the global energy mix. Driven by global climate change, renewable energy and growing demand in emerging economies, the appetite for clean and affordable energy has never been higher.  Like the Military Technology Revolution did in the post-WWII era, and the Information Technology Revolution did in the 1990s, the ETR will produce tens of millions of new jobs globally in the next several decades.  These jobs will be produced with a lot of churn.  Existing energy companies will become more efficient, requiring fewer workers.  More importantly, energy generation is shifting from centralized to decentralized, point-of-use systems that are not only more efficient but has the potential to create millions of local small businesses.  New technologies will create new markets and employment opportunities.  Countries that have an ETR strategy will claim the bulk of these new jobs.  While the U.S. is in the forefront in the emerging ETR, it lacks an overall strategy from a business and jobs creation perspective.
  • The Network Technology Revolution (see: http://jobenomicsblog.com/network-technology-revolution/ ) is characterized by a perfect storm of highly advanced technologies, processes and systems, including big data (zettabytes of data stored in “clouds”), semantic webs (thinking websites), machine learning (systems that can learn from data), mobile robotics (automated machines capable of movement), ubiquitous computing (embedding microprocessors in everyday objects to communicate information without requiring human interaction), national broadband system (bringing high-speed networks to everyone ), the “Internet of Things” (a world where more things are connected to the Internet than people), all of which will be imbued or controlled by some degree of artificial intelligence (AI) agents.

The more creative the NTR becomes the more destructive it will be.    According to the Oxford University study[2] on computerization “about 47% of total U.S. employment is at risk” over the next two decades.  If Oxford’s estimates are correct, up to 67 million U.S. jobs could be at risk.   With a proper national strategy (that currently does not exist), the NTR can replace jobs lost to computerization and automation via the creation of millions of new small business and tens of millions of jobs.   Via the NTR, jobs can be dissected into discrete tasks, which, in turn, will be addressed by temporary collectives and virtual organizations.  Team collaborative and management tools will further create “contextual” work environments that rapidly form, perform, and then reform to address subsequent tasks.  More and more brick and mortar edifices that house full-time employees will give way to temporary offices, mobile computing and home-based operations—environments ideally suited for contingent workers.

In regard to ethnology, 154 million NTR-savvy “Screenagers” (Generation Z, born 1996 to present, now 19 years old and younger) and “Millennials” (Generation Y, born 1980 to 1995, now ages 20 to 35) generally prefer contingent work over traditional full-time occupations.  61% of Millennials still at “regular” jobs want to quit within two years and be entirely independent.  72% of surveyed Screenagers want to start their own business[3].  While much of this is wishful thinking, the ETR and NTR will provide many of these Millennials and Screenagers with business and nonstandard employment opportunities that will make their wishes come true.

Properly structured, the ETR and NTR can provide employment opportunities for those Millennials and Screenagers who exhibit “cultural dissimilarities” that make them a poor fit for the traditional labor force.  Millennials are now firmly embedded into the U.S. workforce and are providing to be a multigenerational team management challenge[4] compared to their Generation X (born 1966 to 1979) and Baby-Boomers (born 1946 to 1965) counterparts.   The entrance of Screenagers will likely compound this challenge since these newcomers have expectations and timelines that are usually incompatible with today’s career paths.  Rather than trying force-fit continent workers into the baby boomer-oriented legacy labor pool, it is prudent to seek solutions that recognize the realities of a changing workforce and help individuals productively pursue their self-interests and self-sufficiency.  When individuals pursue their self-interest, they indirectly promote the greater good of society by producing vital goods, services and the tax revenues needed to govern the society.

Jobenomics contends that micro and self-employed businesses (small businesses with 1-19 employees) creation is a viable way to accommodate the expanding contingent workforce and deal with the issue of cultural dissimilarities in next-generation entrants.   U.S. micro and self-employed businesses currently employ 30,903,000 workers compared to large corporations (1000+ employees) with only 18,293,000 employees[5].  Women-owned, Generation Y/Z-owned, Minority-owned and Veteran-owned businesses represent demographic groups with the highest need and greatest micro and self-employed business growth potential.

Over the last two decades, China lifted 200 million out of poverty in part by promoting micro and small businesses.  According to recent government figures, the value of Chinese micro and small business loans is $3.5 trillion[6] compared to $0.6 trillion in the United States.[7]

In addition to government and financial institution support, Chinese companies promote micro and small business creation.  Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce company, was founded “to champion small businesses, in the belief that the Internet would level the playing field by enabling small enterprises to leverage innovation and technology to grow and compete more effectively in the domestic and global economies”. [8]   Alibaba underwrites approximately 250,000 micro-businesses per year.  If leading U.S. technology companies (such as, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, CISCO, etc.) were inclined to help U.S. contingency workers create iBusinesses in support of (1) filling the 5.4 million unfilled job openings (see below), (2) seizing emerging employment ETR/NTR opportunities, and (3) monetizing social networks, America could put tens of millions of people to work or provide supplementary income to the those who it.

Job Openings By Industry

 

Private Sector Businesses by Company Size.  Private sector businesses employ 85% of the U.S. workforce (120 million employees out of a 142 million workforce within a total population of 321 million Americans).

As reported by the ADP National Employment Report (published monthly by the ADP Research Institute in close collaboration with Moody’s Analytics), small business is the dominant economic force in the United States in terms of employment and job creation.  The ADP report is obtained by surveying 400,000 U.S. businesses each month.

US Private Sector Employment by Company Size

Today, small businesses (those companies with less than 500 employees as defined by the U.S. Small Business Association) employ 77.9% of all private sector Americans with a total of 93,229,000 employees—over 5 times the amount of large corporations (1000+).  Very small businesses with less than 19 employees employ 69% more than all large corporations combined (30.9M versus 18.3M).

US Jobs Created This Decade by Company Size

 

US Jobs Created Last Month by Company SizeSince the beginning of this decade, small business produced 78.7% of all new American jobs.  Last month’s small business jobs creation performance produced an astounding 86.7% of all new jobs.   These are amazing statistics considering the adverse lending environment by financial institutions, mounting government regulation, and the pittance of federal government spending on small business creation.

Very small and startup businesses have traditionally been the primary source of employment for entry-level workers and the long-term unemployed.  Had the U.S. government paid more attention to this category of employers during its generous handouts of $17 trillion worth of federal government stimuli, bailouts and buyouts to financial institutions and large corporations since the Great Recession, as many as ten million more Americans would be employed today as estimated by Jobenomics.

According the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA)[9], there are 28.4 million small businesses compared to 17,700 businesses with over 500 employees.  Of the 28.4 million small businesses, 5.7 million had employees and 22.7 million were nonemployers (incorporated and unincorporated self-employed, sole proprietorships, etc.).  Small business startups, minus closures, create about 63% of American net new jobs.  About half of all new small businesses survive five years or more and about one-third of these start-ups survive 10 years or more.  In 2014, 79% of all startups survived the first year.

Post Recession Employment by Company Size
It is a common misconception that small businesses, especially very small (1-19 employees), are the most fragile.  The above ADP graphic indicates that very small businesses have been the most resilient of the five business categories following the Great Recession.  This fact cannot be understated in an environment where small businesses have been starved for investment capital and meaningful government support.

Industry Employment by Company Size

It is also a common misconception that small businesses are only involved service-providing industries whereas large major corporations dominate goods-producing industries.  The above chart indicates that small businesses play a major role in both goods-producing as well as the service-providing industries.

Thomson Reuters/PayNet Indices provide valuable insight into the health of small business.  The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI)[10] measures the volume of new commercial loans and leases to small businesses.  To create the SBLI, PayNet tracks the new borrowing activity by millions of U.S. businesses as reported by the largest lenders.  The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI)[11] measures small business financial stress and provides early warning of future insolvency.  The most recent SBLI and SBDI are shown.

Thomson Reuters-PayNet

The SBLI (lending) indicates that new loan originations to small businesses have increased slowly since the end of the recession and may now be at the point of significant small business expansion.  The SBDI (delinquencies) shows that loan delinquencies (31 to 90 days past due) are close to their lowest points since 2005.  This is very good news for future economic growth.  Small business creditworthiness is critical to business expansion and jobs creation.

Service-Providing Sector.  The U.S. service-providing sector has grown 75% over the last three decades.

US Service-Providing Industry Sector Growth

Today, the U.S. service-providing sector employs a total of 100,371,000 people across seven industries. Since year 2010, the U.S. service-providing sector created 10,327,000 new jobs, which equates to 86.1% of all new jobs created by the private sector.

US Service-Providing Industry Sector Employment

Employment statistics for industries in the service-providing sector are ranked by the number of new jobs created between 1 January 2010 and 1 July 2015 (66 months):

  • Professional and Business Services: 3,276,000 new jobs
  • Trade, Transportation, Utilities: 2,428,000 new jobs
  • Education and Health Services: 2,311,000 new jobs
  • Leisure and Hospitality: 2,179,000 new jobs
  • Financial Activities: 374,000 new jobs
  • Other Services: 332,000 new jobs
  • Information (non-internet, like publishing): 50,000 new jobs

US Service-Providing Industry Employment Growth

Of the seven service-providing industries, all seven have now gained jobs since the Great Recession ended and the start of the new decade on 1 January 2010.  The four three industries are Professional and Business Services (19.9%), Leisure and Hospitality (16.8%), Education and Health Services (11.7%) and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (9.9%).

Goods-Producing Sector.  The U.S. goods-producing sector includes Manufacturing, Construction and Mining/Logging industries and has declined 21% since its latest peak in March 2000.

US Goods-Producing Industry Sector Growth

Today, the goods-producing sector employs a total of 19,561,000 people across the three industries: manufacturing, construction and mining/logging.  Since year 2010, the U.S. goods-producing sector created 1,769,000 new jobs, which equates to 13.9% of all new jobs created by the private sector.

US Goods-Producing Industry Sector Employment

Employment statistics for industries in this sector are ranked by the number of jobs created between 1 January 2010 and 1 July 2015 (66 months):

  • Manufacturing: 863,000 new jobs
  • Construction: 726,000 new jobs
  • Mining and Logging: 180,000 new jobs

US Goods-Producing Industry Employment Growth

The fastest growing industry in the goods-producing sector is Mining/Logging (27.1%), followed by Construction (12.8%) and Manufacturing (7.5%).  The explosive growth in the Mining/Logging industry is largely due to oil and natural gas extraction (via new technologies of fracking and horizonal drilling), and related exploration and support activities.  However, the fracking industry lost 35,000 jobs during the last quarter due to low oil prices.

U.S. Manufacturing Assessment.  While manufacturing has added 863,000 new jobs since the beginning of this decade, it has a long way to go to achieve peak its peak level of 19.6 million in June 1979 after sustaining a consistent growth rate from its post-World War II low of 12.5 million in September 1945.   Since its peak in 1979, the U.S. manufacturing industry has declined by 37%.

US Manufacturing Employment Since WWII

Manufacturing currently employs 12,338,000 people, which is not statistically significant from manufacturing’s all time low of 11,462,000 in January 2010.  Manufacturing is still in the doldrums from a historical perspective.

Manufacturing Employment Last 12 Months

Over the last 12 months, manufacturing has had 11 up-months and 1 zero gain month in terms of employment with a net increase of 161,000 jobs in the last year out compared to a total of approximately 3.1 million new jobs across all private sector industries.

Notwithstanding, the political rhetoric  about increasing U.S. exports, re-shoring of U.S. manufacturing jobs and increased U.S. productivity, Jobenomics forecasts limited upside employment potential in manufacturing due to excessive government regulation, improved automation, competitive foreign labor rates, and a lack of high-tech manufacturing skills in our civilian labor force (see Jobenomics’ Manufacturing Industry Forecast posting).

The Network Technology Revolution will further reduce the need for manual labor as well as many cognitive level positions in marketing, accounting, machinists and administration.  As of the most recent BLS Job Openings and Labor Survey, U.S. manufacturers have 361,000 open jobs largely due to a lack of skills.  Automating these open positions maybe much easier than finding motivated and qualified candidates and training them to fulfill the need.

Jobenomics is also concerned by the amount political and public  emphasis on manufacturing growth as the primary sector for jobs creation.  While manufacturing is vitally important to our nation, political emphasis needs to be on the high growth industries in the service sector.  Manufacturing emphasis should be on protecting our gains and focusing on next-generation manufacturing technology, processes and recapitalization.

U.S. Construction Industry Assessment.  Even though the construction industry is showing signs of growth, the construction sector continues to struggle after a rapid rise (69%) during the go-go years in the 1990s and the housing bubble in the early 2000s.

US Construction Industry Employment

In the 2006-07 time period, peak construction employment was 7,725,000.  Today, it is 6,380,000, a loss of 17%.  The good news is that construction employment stopped its decline and has increased from its post-recession low of 5,432,000 in January 2011.

Construction Employment Last 12 Months

Over the last 12 months, construction has had 11 up-months and only one down-month in terms of employment with a net increase of 259,000 jobs in the last year.

The U.S. construction industry recovery from the Great Recession is still a work very much in progress as shown in the following U.S. Construction Industry Recovery chart.

US Construction Industry Recovery

Residential construction employment has been the hardest hit segment with a 42% decrease from its pre-recession peak (3,451,000) to its post-recession low (1,986,000). Today, residential construction employment is still down from its peak by 29% with a total employment of 2,442,000.   Nonresidential construction fared slightly better with losses of  -24% from peak and -13% today with 2,992,000 employed.  The heavy and civil engineering sector fared the best (largely due to federal stimulus programs) loosing -19% from peak and now down only -6% today with a total of 946,000 employed.

As of the most recent BLS Job Openings and Labor Survey, U.S. construction companies have 155,000 open jobs (mainly higher skilled jobs) that currently are unfilled out of a total of 5.4 million unfilled U.S. jobs.

New US Residential Construction

Robust residential construction usually leads economic recoveries.  However, this recovery is different.  As shown above, according to U.S. Census Bureau Data, new residential starts dropped from a peak 2,273,000 in 2006 to a low 478,000 in April 2009.  As of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available[12], new residential construction starts were 1,080,000 in December 2014, which represents an improvement from a 80% decrease in April 2009 to a 52% decrease today from the January 2006 peak.

The Census Bureau also reports[13] that U.S. home ownership rates have dropped to its lowest level since 1977 and down 7.1% from its high in 1996.  This drop is due to less affordable housing, more restrictive lending, fewer first-time buyers who are renting rather than buying, and people who have dropped out of the housing market.

Jobenomics forecasts that the residential construction industry will not produce significant number of new jobs for the remainder of this decade due to foreclosures, underwater mortgages, unemployment as well as changing attitudes to the value of homeownership.  Due to the stagnant economy and government deficits, commercial and heavy construction is also unlikely to produce a significant number of new domestic jobs.  Jobenomics does see potential in major foreign construction projects, green construction and renovation of older homes, and reconstruction of disaster areas.

U.S. Mining/Logging Industry Assessment.  Mining (oil & gas extraction, coal and minerals) and logging continue to be a bright area for employment growth.  From the beginning of this decade, mining increased employment by 221,000 jobs, with an impressive growth rate of 33.3%.  With proper private and public sector support, this industry has significant upside potential.

US Mining (Oil, Gas, Minerals, Coal)

Mining exploration and support employment has more than doubled in the last decade and likely to double again with exploration for domestic energy sources.  Oil and gas extraction is also likely to increase (when oil prices rise) with new natural gas, oil shale, oil sands and offshore oil resources are exploited via new  technology, like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking).

Minerals mining employment has been stagnant over the decade, but this may change as commodity prices (gold, silver, copper) increase as well as worldwide demand for these commodities increase.  Coal mining and logging are not likely to increase anytime soon mainly due to environmental pressure and the emphasis on clean renewable technology.  (see Jobenomics Energy Technology Revolution study at http://jobenomicsblog.com/energy-technology-revolution / for more details.)

The Government Employment Sector.  Total government sector employment currently is 21,910,000.  Since 1 January 2010, government has lost 572,000 jobs, a negative 2.6% growth rate.  Employment statistics in this sector is shown in the following chart.

Government Employment This Decade

The government sector continued to lose jobs with 70.6% of all job losses occurring with local government (mainly teachers, police and firefighters), 12.6% at the state level, and 16.8% in the federal government (not including military, which is also downsizing).  Jobenomics predicts that government job losses will continue to decline due the effects debt and deficit spending.  In addition, if the U.S. economy suffers an economic disruption due to either domestic or foreign events, government spending will likely decrease further.

In conclusion, business and jobs creation is the number one issue facing U.S. economic recovery.  While some would argue that debt/deficits or entitlement/welfare are the biggest issues, it takes businesses to create lasting jobs that generate tax revenue to run government as well as supporting the less fortunate.   The following chart is about as simple as Jobenomics can make it.

321 Million

34% of all Americans financially support the rest of the country.   As of the end of Q2 2015, out of a total population of 321 million Americans, 110 million private sector workers support 32 million government workers and government contractors, 94 million able-bodied people who can work but chose not to work, 69 million who cannot work (at home caregivers, children, retired, institutionalized), and 17 million unemployed and underemployed (U6 rate).

Of the 110 million, approximately 68 million individuals work full-time, 27 million are part-timers (less than 35 hours per week) and 15 million are self-employed.

The U.S. economy cannot be sustained by 34% supporting an overhead of 66%.   More people must be productively engaged in the private sector labor force for the U.S. economy to flourish.

The solution to growing America’s economic base involves engaging our small business engine.  Even though severely constrained by limited financing and restrictive government policies, small businesses created 78.7% of all new jobs in the U.S. since the end of Great Recession.

Jobenomics believes that new small, emerging and self-employed businesses could create 20 million new jobs within a decade, if properly incentivized and supported.   Notwithstanding filling the 5.4 million open U.S. jobs positions, the emerging Energy Technology Revolution (ETR) and the Network Technology Revolution (NTR) could create 20 million net new American jobs within a decade given proper leadership and support.

Jobenomics is focused on four demographics with the highest need and growth potential.  These demographic areas include Generation Y/Z-owned businesses, Women-owned businesses, Minority-owned businesses, and Veteran-owned businesses.   These demographics are ideally suited for the accommodating the growing contingent workforce and attracting new labor force entrants that do not share the same employment dream of the older generations.

Jobenomics is also working on urban mining of high-value electronic waste and tires to fund Jobenomics Community-Based Business Generators that are designed to mass-produce small and self-employed businesses as well as accelerating existing small and medium-sized businesses.

If Jobenomics can help create thousands of highly-scalable small businesses, America writ-large can facilitate the creation of millions of small businesses that would transform our economy.

[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[2] Oxford University, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerization?, 17 Sep 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdfhttp://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

[3] Ryan Jenkins Next Generation Catalyst, 7 Emerging Millennial and Generation Z Trends For 2015,  http://ryan-jenkins.com/2015/02/05/7-emerging-millennial-and-generation-z-trends-for-2015/,  Global Messaging, Beyond Facebook: How to Market to a New Generation, https://www.globalmessaging.co.uk/index.php/beyond-facebook-market-new-generation/ &

[4] Business News Daily, Despite Skeptics, Millennials Taking Control At Work, 4 September 2013, http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/5039-millennials-management-positions.html

[5] ADP National Employment Report, June 2015, http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

[6][6] Reuters, China pushes for more small business lending despite bad loans rising, 8 May 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/08/us-china-economy-idUSKBN0NT0O320150508

[7] U.S. Small Business Association, Small Business Lending in the United States 2013 (Published December 2014), Table B. Value of Small Business Loans Outstanding by Loan Type and Size through June 2014, https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2013-Small-Business-Lending-Study.pdf

[8] Kauffman Foundation, The Importance of Startups in Job Creation and Job Destruction, Last Paragraph,  9 Sep 2010, http://www.kauffman.org/what-we-do/research/firm-formation-and-growth-series/the-importance-of-startups-in-job-creation-and-job-destruction

[9] U.S. Small Business Association (SBA), Office of Advocacy, Frequently Asked Questions, https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/FAQ_March_2014_0.pdf & Small Business Profiles Offer Valuable Insight into States’ Economies, February 2015, https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/Small_Business_Advocate_Feb_2015.pdf

[10] Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index, http://paynetonline.com/SmallBusinessInsights/ThomsonReutersPayNetSmallBusinessLendingInde.aspx

[11] Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index, http://paynetonline.com/SmallBusinessInsights/ThomsonReutersPayNetSmallBusinessDelinquency.aspx

[12] U.S. Census Bureau, Business and Industry, Time Series/Trend Charts, New Residential Construction, Annual Rate for Housing Units Started, http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/historical_data/

[13] U.S. Census Bureau, Table 14. Homeownership Rates for the U.S. and Regions:  1965 to Present, http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

Fastest Growing Occupations

Download PDF Version: Fastest Growing Occupations – 22 Oct 2013

22 October 2013

As discussed in the latest monthly Jobenomics Employment Report, 84.3% of all new jobs this decade have been created in four of the thirteen US industry groups.  The fastest growing industry is Professional and Business Services with 2.131 million new jobs followed by Trade, Transportation and Utilities with 1.498 million; Education and Health Services with 1.385 million; and Leisure and Hospitality with 1.278 million for a grand total of 6.292 million new jobs.  This report examines these four industry groups for the fastest growing occupations in terms of jobs added and growth rate this decade.  This data is offered as a guide for those entering the labor force or planning a career.

Industry Employment Growth This Decade (10s)

Professional and Business Services.  According to the BLS, Professional and Business Services supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (NAICS 54), Management of Companies and Enterprises (NAICS 55), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (NAICS 56).  NAICS (pronounced “nakes”) is the North American Industry Classification System that is used by business and government to classify business establishments according to type of economic activity in the United States, Canada and Mexico.  The following two charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within the Professional and Business Services.

Professional and Business Services Jobs

Professional and Business Services Growth

 

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.  According to the BLS, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities  supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Wholesale Trade (NAICS 42), Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45), Transportation and Warehousing (NAICS 48-49), and Utilities (NAICS 22).  The following four charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.

Wholesale and Retail Trade Jobs

Wholesale and Retail Trade Growth

Transportation and Utilities Jobs

Transportation and Utilities Growth

Leisure and Hospitality.  According to the BLS, the Leisure and Hospitality supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (NAICS 71) and Accommodation and Food Services (NAICS 72).  The following two charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within Leisure and Hospitality.

Leisure and Hospitality Jobs

 Leisure and Hospitality Growth

Education and Health Services.  According to the BLS, the Education and Health Services supersector is part of the service-providing industries group and consists of these sectors: Educational Services (NAICS 61) and Health Care and Social Assistance (NAICS 62).  The following two charts show the number of jobs added and growth rate this decade for major occupations within the Education and Health Services.

Education and Health Services Jobs

Education and Health Services Growth