Jobenomics Veterans Center(s)

The Jobenomics Veterans Center (JVC) Initiative is designed to help wounded and combat veterans transition to the civilian workforce by providing training and financing to start their own Service Disabled Veteran Owned Small Business (SDVOSB) or Veterans Owned Small Business (VOSB) oriented to the skills that the vet learned during his/her tenure in the US Armed Services.

While publicly venerated for patriotism and service, veterans have a much harder time finding work than most citizens. Veteran unemployment rates have been consistently higher than average citizens. While the job market is slowly improving for most Americans, it’s moving in the opposite direction for Iraq/Afghan vets. Veterans, aged 18 to 24, have a 30% jobless rate, up from 18% a year earlier. For for black veterans, aged 18 to 24, the unemployment rate is approching 50%. Returning combat veterans need a “hand-up” more than they need a “hand-out”. More specifically, they need jobs, which are in short supply in today’s economy. Combat veterans face even a more difficult challenge after being in austere conditions, many of whom face degrees of post dramatic stress syndrome and other combat related disabilities. Of the 2.2 million Iraq/Afghan vets, 624,000 (28%) have filed for some sort of disability with the Veterans Administration.

JVC will focus primary on combat veterans (soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines) returning from Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (Iraq). The goal of this training is to help veterans transition into civilian life via a 6-month business training and creation program. JVC is designed to provide an environment that will address the challenges of a successful transition from combat to civilian life as well as helping the vet start a SDVOSB or VOB. Successful creation of a SDVOSB or VOB will provide veterans their own company as well as making them more competitive in getting a job at an established company, whether on a full-time (W2) or a part-time (1099) basis. Having their own company will also build confidence in their ability to function in the civilian workforce and greatly shorten the transition time from combat to workfare. While accolades from the American public are extremely gratifying, providing meaningful employment opportunities are the highest form of appreciation for their service and sacrifices.

Via the Jobenomics movement, JVC has agreements with leading entrepreneurial, business development, academic, financial and veteran experts and networks. JVC will use proven professionals, human resources personnel and college and vocational placement specialists to aid in the transition from military to civilian life. JVC features wellness programs, social events, excursions and motivational speakers. By the end of the 6-month program the vets will have:

A thorough knowledge of business practices on how to set up and run a successful small business taught by successful entrepreneurs and leading instructors with expertise in small business creation and implementation.
An established SDVOSB or VOB with:

An Employer Identification Number (EIN), incorporation (S-Corp, C-Corp or Limited Liability Corporation), and the essentials to run a fully operating company (accounting systems, business plans, legal/regulatory, branding/marketing/sales, financing, etc.).
All vets will be supplied a computer with accounting, business planning and website/social networking systems. Training will be also provided including how to obtain appropriate accounting (e.g., book keeping and CPA), information technology, and sales/marketing/ advertizing/branding support after graduation.
All registration/licensing completed in the state and municipality of their choosing.
Supplementary business systems (e.g., website, social networking, bank accounts, etc.) that will facilitate the promotion of SDVOSB or VOB growth.
Supplementary education while at the JVC, including.

Enrollment in an on-line learning course on other on-line universities to pursue continuing education and certification, which will be initiated and taught by qualified instructors while at the Center.
Access to micro-business coaching and micro-business financing from private sector sources during and after training at the Center.
A JVC certificate of completion from and any supplementary certifications from the academic organizations affiliated with the Center.
Potential classes with local accredited academic institutions.

Understanding on how to access US government grants, veterans set-aside funding and investment capital (debt and equity financing) from private sources (commercial banks, investment banks, and high net worth individuals/angel investors). Jobenomics is in the process of setting up micro-business loans for the JVC similar to the $20 million micro-business loan program (loans ranging to $50,000 for qualified new businesses) that was initiated for the Jobenomics-Harlem program. The Center will also work with municipal, state and the federal government to underwrite the new SDVOSB/VOBs.
Low cost business incubation facilities and/or offices at local industrial/business parks.
A network of entrepreneurial organizations and an on-going business support network.

The JVC, via the national Jobenomics team of entrepreneurs and faculty, has world-class instructors, small business entrepreneurs and big business leaders. These instructors, entrepreneurs, business leaders are from prestigious academic, entrepreneurial networks (like the 20 year old CEO Space entrepreneurial network with a world-class faculty and a network of hundreds of thousands of small business leaders across the US) and Fortune 500 executives who are willing to volunteer to help returning combat veterans. The leading aerospace and defense corporations have expressed an interest in working with the JVC to outsource work to these newly created SDVOSB or VOB.

JVC pilot projects are currently being targeted for locations in Massachusetts, Texas and Nevada.

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Jobenomics Mining Initiative

As defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US goods-producing sector includes manufacturing, construction and mining/logging industries. The Manufacturing/Construction Jobs Forecast looked at manufacturing and construction industries and predicted that these industries would not create a significant amount of new jobs in the near future. This article looks at the mining sector, and concludes that this sector has a significant jobs creation potential. A million new mining industry jobs could be created this decade with government agency, environmentalist and investment community collaboration.

Mining is defined as oil and gas extraction (oil & gas), coal mining (coal), metallic and non-metallic minerals mining and quarrying (minerals), and support activities for mining (exploration & support). Industries in the exploration & support category provide exploration (except geophysical surveying and mapping) and support services, on a contract or fee basis, for the mining and quarrying of minerals and for the extraction of oil and gas. Exploration includes traditional prospecting methods, such as taking core samples and making geological observations at prospective sites.

As of 1 Jan 2012, at total of 776,000 American were employed in the mining sector, of which, 48% (374,200) were employed in exploration & support, 24% (186,800) in oil & gas, 17% (129,300) in minerals and 11% (85,700) in coal.

Due to the highly-advertised debates between environmentalists and mining industry advocates, America’s focus has been largely on oil, gas and coal. Energy independence, offshore and domestic drilling, oil spills (BP and Exxon Valdez), Keystone pipeline, oil shale and oil sands, natural gas reserves, clean coal, hydraulic fracking, and environmental protection are dominant issues. The Jobenomics position on these issues is that America’s oil, gas and coal reserves are massive and can be exploited in an environmentally-friendly manner.

The debate between the two big E’s, economy and environment, needs to be more collaborative as opposed to adversarial. Economic and security implications of energy independence and jobs creation are rising in importance. Environmental protection is also a critical issue, but environmentalists should not have near-veto power over exploitation of critical national resources and related business and job creation.

Jobenomics believes that exploitation of the mining sector could produce a million new, high-paying, private sector jobs this decade in an environmentally-friendly manner without a significant impact on the environment. There is a growing argument from the political right that the Environmental Protection Agency be eliminated. Jobenomics believes that the EPA needs to have a place at the table for national level initiatives. However, the EPA needs to be reengineered to be more business-friendly in order to enable businesses to be more environmentally-friendly.

The Canada-to-Texas Keystone oil pipeline serves as an excellent example for a large scale national initiative. According to the US Chamber of Commerce, the Canada-to-Texas Keystone oil pipeline could create could create as many as 250,000 permanent US jobs. More realistic assessments put the number of direct pipeline jobs at 20,000. From a Jobenomics perspective, adding one more pipeline to our national pipeline grid (shown) should be a no-brainer. From an environmentalist perspective, the Keystone pipeline could be a collaborative effort to implement the next-generation, environmentally-friendly pipeline.

In addition to major national initiatives, Jobenomics believes there is vast potential in growing small and emerging mining businesses that could generate millions of new jobs. In this regard, Jobenomics is working with small and emerging businesses involved in: copper, uranium and gold mining, geophysical and geospatial exploration, hydraulic fracking, aggregates quarrying, natural gas to diesel fuel conversion, CO² sequestration, synthetic fuels, as well as a number of mining technology and service companies.

The Jobenomics Mining Initiative recently toured the Rosemont Copper mine near Tucson, Arizona. Rosemont is advertised as the most modern and environmentally-friendly mine in the world. Environmentally, land, air and water protection is a top priority. Rosemont’s environmental engineering includes: a low footprint, low water usage and recycling, air quality protection, solar and renewable energy, permanent land conservation and land reclamation starting day one. Economically, the independent Arizona State University Report 2009 states that Rosemont Copper will stimulate a total of $15 billion in new economic output to the region over the life of the mine, including average of 2,100 jobs annually with an average income of $59,000. In addition, copper is an essential mineral in creating a green economy from wind power to hybrid vehicles to modern electrical grids and homes.

Liberty Star Uranium and Metals Corporation also provides an example how a small exploration and mining company could rapidly produce thousands of new jobs that would exploit US of gold, copper, molybdenum and uranium reserves potentially worth several trillion dollars.

Liberty Star is a small, publically-traded (LBSR: OTCBB, LBVN: Frankfurt), exploration and mining company with a 10 year history. Liberty Star Holds hundreds of square miles of copper, gold and uranium claims in Arizona and Alaska. In addition to its 431 uranium claims in Arizona, Liberty Star holds a very large block of claims in Alaska called Big Chunk, which portends to hold the largest copper/gold reserves in the world.

Most mining companies struggles with environmentalist organizations that oppose any new mining projects as well as government agencies that are unduly influenced by environmentalist lobbying. However, the power of environmentalist lobbying may be in decline. State and local governments are beginning to turn to minerals-oriented companies to help solve problems associated with rising unemployment and declining tax revenues. Environmental protection concerns are often less of a concern for minerals companies as opposed to oil, gas and coal companies that tend to be associated with more controversial issues like emissions pollution that contributes to climate change. In addition, minerals-oriented companies, like Rosemont and Liberty Star, have made significant advancements in environmentally-friendly mining technologies and processes.

The lack of domestic financing is the second major issue facing mining companies. Little, if any, of the $12T federal government stimulus and bailout funds reached the mining sector. Financial institutions, that greatly benefitted from government stimulus funds, prefer large corporations listed on the major stock exchanges as opposed to small and emerging companies listed on the OTCBB (over the counter bulletin board) exchange. High-net worth investors are scarce due to economic uncertainty and the relative unattractiveness of an over-regulated industry.

Despite the lack of domestic funding, mining companies have found significant interest with foreign investors. Surprisingly, investors in Asia and the oil-rich Arab Gulf Region see immense financial potential in US minerals, especially copper and gold. To help exploit this interest, Liberty Star is working with US Citizenship and Immigration Services, a division of the Department of Homeland Security, to establish EB-5 Foreign Investor Regional Centers in Arizona and Alaska to finance scout drilling of target claims as well as conduct engineering, economic feasibility, environmental and socio-economic studies.

In conclusion, mining industries in the US good-producing sector have the potential to create a million new jobs by 2020. These jobs could be created by a combination of large top-down national initiatives as well as from bottoms-up small and emerging business efforts. In order to facilitate a major jobs creation mining initiative, government environmental protection agencies need to be more business-friendly in order to enable businesses to be more environmentally-friendly and economically healthy.

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Big-3 Potential 2012 Disruptors

Business, job, wealth and tax revenue creation is the top priority for America. The tyranny of hundreds of trillions of dollars of debt and obligations will dramatically change America, if we do not produce our way out of it. In addition, numerous potential international and domestic crises could derail our nascent recovery. Jobenomics addresses the issues of debt and potential crises as part of the overall strategy to produce jobs, wealth and revenue, whether in good or austere times.

Jobenomics predicts that 2012 will be a pivotal year for the US economy as well as business/jobs creation (see 2012 Jobenomics Outlook article). Economically, the US is skating on thin ice. A major or series of minor economic disruptions could shatter this ice and plunge the economy back into recession. Three potentially large disruptors are: US national debt problems, meltdown in the Eurozone, and conflict with Iran.

US National Debt Problems. The US national debt is growing at an alarming rate. At the beginning of the Clinton Administration the US national debt was $4.1T (trillion). At the beginning of Bush Administration, it was $5.7T and rapidly grew to $10.0T eight years later due to post-911 conflicts (Iraq and Afghanistan) and implementation of new entitlement programs, like Medicare Part D. During the first three years of the Obama Administration the national debt increased by almost $5T to $14.8T with a 2011 interest payment of $205 billion. According to the Obama Administration’s FY2012 Budget, over the next ten years, the US national debt is projected to grow by almost $10T to $24.2T with a projected annual interest payment of $928 billion.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total US national debt to be $27.6T by 2021, an increase of almost $13T.

From a Jobenomics perspective, $24.2T or $27.6T by 2021 could be conservative numbers if the economy does not recover or if tax rates are cut in an effort to stimulate the economy. Assuming that US federal government tax revenues grow at 2.5% per year (which is the percentage that the US economy is currently growing) and planned government expenditures continue, the US national debt will reach a whopping $32.6T by 2021. Jobenomics calculations are shown below. Considering that the decade of ‘00s (2000 to 2009) lost one million jobs that were tax revenue producers, a 2.5% growth rate could be considered a conservative number as well.

To understand how significant debt and deficits are, a snapshot of the President’s planned FY2012 outlays and revenues paints a vivid picture. The total US deficit is estimated at -$1.164T for FY2012 (it was -$1.293 in FY2010 and -$1.597 in FY11). This year the federal government plans to receive $2.2T in tax revenues and plans to spend (outlay) $2.3T on mandatory spending programs (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Interest Payments) and $1.4T on National Security and other discretionary government programs. In other words, mandatory spending of $2.3T for entitlement programs and interest payment will cost more than all the money our government takes in. Consequently, we will have to borrow an additional $1.2T to defend to run government and pay for national security.

Unless spending is dramatically cut (Tea Party emphasis), or taxes are significantly increased (Occupy Movement emphasis on taxing the top 1%), or tax revenues dramatically increase via a growing economy (Jobenomics emphasis via small, emerging and self-employed business creation), huge annual deficits will continue for the remainder of this decade. Whether the US national debt is $24T (President), $28T (CBO) or $33T (Jobenomics @ 2.5% revenue growth) is largely academic. The US economy is likely to collapse under any of these scenarios.

Compared to other grassroots movements, Jobenomics national grassroots effort is small but growing rapidly. With its focus on middle-class business and job creation, Jobenomics can help bridge the gap of America’s ideological divide regarding US debt spending and receipts. Jobenomics appeals to the left and right, rich and poor, urban and rural, and members of all political parties. Small, emerging and self-employed business creation is the only realistic way to increase tax revenue and reduce welfare spending by putting people back to work.

Eurozone Meltdown? The global financial community is watching the PIGS, which is a derogatory acronym for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. All of these countries are in financial turmoil. All are in recession. All have serious debt issues and are considering bankruptcy and strategic defaults as ways to escape their debt burden. Moreover, the PIGS are threatening the financial stability of the entire European Union (EU), which is bifurcating into have nations (France, Germany, UK) nations that have stable economies, and have-not nations (PIGS) that are skating near the edge of financial abyss.

Like any family, financial issues generally bring out the worst in people. This is no exception in the 27-nation European Union where 17 nations share the euro as a common currency. Traditional rivalries, like those between Germany and France, as well as Eastern and Western Europe are beginning to intensify as financial difficulties continue to worsen with the PIGS. While the PIGS are in the worst trouble, they are not unique. Thirteen of the 27 EU members face debts equal to more than 60% of their GDP, the limit set by the European Commission.

There is mounting concern that Greece will be unable to finance a budget deficit, which is more than four times the EU’s debt limit, or make payments on its sovereign debt. A Greek default has far-reaching financial and political implications for the EU, which by charter constitutes a single market. If one part of its market is allowed to fail, what does that mean for the viability of the entire market? The term that most economists and policymakers use is “contagion.” They are as much concerned about the Greek contagion spreading as the Greek crisis itself.

Many fear that the Greek contagion will spread to Portugal, Spain and Italy whose credit ratings are also falling. If this continues, financial institution and investors will be unwilling to continue to fund these countries. Without the ability to sell bonds or borrow money, these countries will default on their debts and sovereign obligations. Default will put significant pressure on European banks that own securities from these countries. The European Central Bank (the EU equivalent of the US Fed) controls the monetary policy of the Eurozone member states. It is also the major source of funding for countries like Greece, and could face major losses on its own loan portfolio if Greek banks fail and the government defaults.

There is significant evidence that the Greek contagion is spreading. On 13 Jan 2012, the S&P Credit Rating agency downgraded 9 of the 17 Eurozone countries. France and Austria lost their coveted AAA ratings, which were lowered one notch to AA+, and Italy and Spain had their ratings cut by two notches. Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands all retained their AAA status, while the ratings of Portugal and Cyprus were cut to junk, thereby joining Greece which is one notch away from default.

A Eurozone meltdown or a PIGS contagion will not only spread throughout the EU, but will engulf US public and private financial institutions that are heavily invested in Europe. No other economic relationship in the world is as integrated as the transatlantic EU/US economies. The EU and the US economies account together for about half the entire world GDP and for nearly a third of world trade flows. The transatlantic relationship also defines the shape of the global economy. Consequently if Europe plunges into recession, it will likely pull the US back into recession as well.

Conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran . Of all the military and terrorist threats facing the US, war with Iran has the most menacing consequences from both security and economic standpoints. A detailed presentation, entitled Conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran, was written by this author in 1996, and reviewed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the leading military war colleges. A downloadable copy can be obtained at by clicking: Conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Jobenomics, the book published in 2010, has the following information about a conflict with Iran and its economic disruptive potential.

Iran is provoking a conflict with the West, using American and Israeli occupation in the Middle East as the cause célèbre for Islamic common cause. However, there are more fundamental reasons motivating the Ayatollahs and the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran. These reasons include:

Political: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly state that their primary political objective is to revive the crumbling Islamic Revolution. An external enemy helps advance the ultra-conservative position over reformers and youth who want détente with the West.
Economic: Control of 50% of the world’s oil reserves greatly benefits Iran. Increasing economic sanctions will either motivate Iranian leaders towards moderation or encourage aggressiveness.
Military: Compared to a hundred thousand US forces and diplomats in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic has several million combat personnel strategically positioned to dominate the region. Additionally, they openly state their right to develop a nuclear capability.
Religious: Messianically-inclined Shia leaders are preparing for confrontation with Israel and America, the expected near-term return of the Islamic messiah, and the establishment of a global Caliphate.
Historical: Confederacy with Shiite communities throughout the Middle-East (starting with Iraq, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia) is a historic opportunity after 1,000 years of domination from Sunni Arabs and Ottoman Turks.

The Iranian leaders have repeatedly stated that war with the West is inevitable. Iran is currently engaged in a war of words and saber rattling. When they achieve nuclear weapons capability, their rhetoric may turn to military action, especially if they feel that they are about to be attacked by Israel and Israel’s Western allies.

Military planners foresee three possible engagement scenarios: closing the Strait of Hormuz, military action against Israel, and military action against America either at home (terrorist attack) or abroad.

Strait of Hormuz. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would create a global energy and economic crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is of great strategic importance. It is the only sea route through which oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, can be transported to the rest of the world. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil supplies transit the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The strait at its narrowest is 21 miles wide with two 1-mile wide channels for marine traffic. Iran has conducted several major naval exercises to showcase its capability to close the Strait of Hormuz and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has publicly stated that Iran will close the Strait if provoked. If the Strait is closed, the price of oil could quadruple overnight. More importantly, the disruption of the flow of oil would quickly impact the economies of numerous nations.
Military action against Israel. President Ahmadinejad has stated on numerous occasions that Iran intends to “wipe Israel off the map,” “very soon,” with a single decisive blow. Preemptive military action against Israel would likely entail a coordinated missile attack, including 40,000 short-range rockets (Katyusha), hundreds of medium-range missiles (Scud) and a few nuclear-tipped theater ballistic missiles (Shehab). Israeli leadership takes these threats seriously and is considering preemptive military action of its own, which could include the use of nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons by either side, or military intervention by the US or Israel to destroy Iranian nuclear development sites, would have major consequences in the global political/economic balance-of-power. It is hard to foresee any outcome that would benefit the US economically or otherwise.
Military action against America at home or abroad. As a result of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, the longest conventional war in the 20th Century, the Iranian military has maintained the bulk of their 32 divisions and 87 brigades, most of which are stationed on the Iraqi border. Several million Iranian troops, along with Iranian special operation forces (Qods) already in Iraq, could quickly overwhelm the fledgling democracy Iraq. Any such action would precipitate a major military response from the US. To counter this response, the Iranians would likely create diversionary or retaliatory attacks within the US. The types of terrorist actions that they could inflict within the US have been the subject of much conjecture and study. The most serious types of attacks would cause massive loss of life and devastating economic impact. To accomplish an Iranian version of shock-and-awe, bio-terrorism, dirty bombs, or an offshore EMP explosion would be the most devastating. According to the US Commission to Assess the Threat to the US from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), “Because of the ubiquitous dependence of US society on the electrical power system, its vulnerability to an EMP attack, coupled with the EMP’s particular damage mechanisms, creates the possibility of long-term, catastrophic consequences.”

From a strategic perspective, Iran is the lynchpin in a larger strategic equation that involves both Russia and China, both of which support Iran politically, militarily and economically. If Iran is successful in establishing itself as the dominant regional power in the Middle East, the global geo-political center would shift increasingly from the West to the East.

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Jobenomics Women-Owned Businesses Initiative

From a Jobenomics perspective, women are the greatest untapped asset in
America. The women-owned business initiative is paramount in the Jobenomics 20 million new private sector jobs by the year 2020 campaign (20 by 20).

Jobenomics’ emphasis is on women-owned businesses, as opposed to women-in-business. The US has approximately 18,000 big businesses, 6 million small businesses, and 22 million self-employed businesses. While there is nothing wrong with women pursuing opportunities in big business, Jobenomics believes that most women will find greater opportunity and satisfaction by creating their own small, self-employed business, tailored to their individual lifestyles. In comparison, today’s highly competitive corporate workspace tends to require employees to conform to corporate culture, which can conflict with other roles women may juggle, such as caring for children or aging parents.

The 2010’s is certain to be the Decade of Women-owned businesses. (1) The Great Recession has encouraged many women to join the workforce, due to necessity or desire, of which many are college educated. (2) Male-dominated industries, like construction and manufacturing, aren’t likely to return to normal until the end of the decade. (3) Social norms are changing, allowing greater participation of women in business. (4) Many of the future service-related jobs, like elder-care, are likely to be dominated by women. (5) Women-owned businesses emphasize small businesses, rather than large, and are more likely to experience growth in the next decade. (6) The traditional “nuclear” families, with a male-head of household, have given way to households headed by women. (7) Most importantly, the rate of employment growth and revenue of women-owned businesses has outpaced the economy and male-dominated businesses for the last three decades.

Today, there are approximately 10 million women-owned businesses that employ 23 million direct and indirect employees, or 22% of the US private sector civilian workforce. 9 million women-owned firms are self-employed businesses without employees. If each women-owned business hires one additional person this decade, 10 million new jobs would be produced. This would equate to 10 million direct jobs—half the 20 by 20 goal. The jobenomics effort intends to help create the conditions that will motivate and incentivize growth of women-owned firms.

Jobenomics is working with several leading women’s organizations (Women’s Information Network, Women’s Radio, and California Leading Ladies) to help define women-owned business initiatives in areas like direct-selling, direct-care, cloud computing, and women veterans’ small businesses. The Jobenomics Community-Based Business Generators will feature a number of programs that will facilitate creation of women-owned businesses.

The Women’s Information Network: http://thewinonline.com

Women’s Radio: http://www.womensradio.com

California Leading Ladies: http://www.leadingladiesconference.com & www.EventComplete.com

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Jobenomics Institute

The Jobenomics Institute is an initiative to establish American business incubators and business generators that will enable the creation of millions of new small, emerging and self-employed businesses. Business incubators are designed to “incubate” individual entrepreneurial-based businesses from a host of possible opportunities. Business generators are designed to “mass produce” businesses in high growth industry sectors. The Jobenomics team is currently negotiating with several locations for the Jobenomics Institute that could host the following functions:

Jobenomics Center for Industrial Development (JCID) is a business training center and industrial incubator dedicated to foreign industrial development in the United States with emphasis on Asian economies, like China. JCID’s main functions include a Foreign Executive Program and The College Preparatory School & Admissions Program for the children of foreign executives.

Foreign Executive Program focuses on foreign professionals who are interested in starting businesses in the United States. The program will feature a School of Entrepreneurialism, motivational speakers from CEO and entrepreneurial communities, and meetings with business owners. By the end of the program, the graduate will have all the skills, certifications/registrations/licenses, business systems to start a business in the United States.
The College Preparatory School & Admissions Program will help the children of foreign executives to prepare, visit and apply for entry into major US undergraduate programs. Thousands of students come annually to US colleges and universities. The College Preparatory School & Admissions Program will provide instruction on the English language and idioms, American culture, and the US higher educational landscape. The program will include visits to leading US universities as well as assistance for college admission.
EB-5 Foreign Investor Program. The Bureau of US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) administers the EB-5 Investor Program, created by Congress to stimulate the US economy through job creation and capital investment by foreign investors. Foreign Executive and College Preparatory School Program graduates are likely to want permanent visas to conduct business or attend colleges in the US. The Jobenomics team has worked with numerous EB-5 Regional Centers throughout the US and will create an EB-5 program for the Jobenomics Institute.

Jobenomics Veterans Center is designed to help wounded and combat veterans transition to the civilian workforce by providing training and access to financing to start their own Service Disabled Veteran Owned Small Businesses (SDVOSB) or Veterans Owned Businesses (VOB) oriented to the skills that the vet learned during his/her tenure in the US Armed Services.

CEO Space. Jobenomics is a strategic partner with CEO Space International which is a business incubator with a thirty-year legacy of training business owners, executives and entrepreneurs in over 140 countries. CEO Space forums are held five times per year with ten-day programs ranging from 250 to 1000 people per forum. CEO Space Forums are streamlined, professionally hosted events. Teams of professional trainers are invested in preparing each class to offer expert advice over a wide spectrum of entrepreneurial topics.

SynerVision Leadership Foundation. In a format of a nonprofit leadership excellence summit, the foundation provides cream-of-the-crop corporate trainers who teach tax-exempt organizations and NGOs the business skills they need to utilize the funds their sponsors and donors gift to them in the most cost-effective productive ways possible. This expertise is provided through world-class summits supplemented by scalable programs for individual tax-exempts that need customized value-added resources beyond what the training conferences provide.

Other Programs. Jobenomics is currently exploring other business generator/incubator programs including local entrepreneur programs, Jobenomics boot camps, One World Expo, Direct-Sales Institute, Forum for CEOs, and Women-Owned Business Training.

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Jobenomics E-Waste Program

The Jobenomics Team formed eCycling USA (www.eCyclingUSA.com) to address US environmental challenges caused by millions of tons of electronic waste (e-waste), and provide a revenue stream for metropolitan-based Jobenomics community based business generators that are designed to create 1,000 new, small, inner-city businesses per year (see Jobenomics-Harlem blog entry).

E-Waste Challenge. Worldwide revenues from e-waste recovery were reported to be $8.5 billion in 2009 and are expected to grow to $13B by 2014. Currently, 3 million tons of e-waste is produced annually in the USA. Less than 20% of this amount is recycled and the annual amount will exceed 10 million tons by 2017. A 2009 survey printed in the Journal of Environmental Management states that 747 million electronic items are stockpiled by US households or more than 4 times as much as official US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates. The EPA reports that 2.25 million tons of TV’s, cell phones and computer products ready for end-of-life management, 18% was collected for recycling and 82% was disposed of in landfills or sent overseas for aftermarket applications. Almost 90% of the exported US e-waste is to China, Nigeria, and India. The US federal government is beginning to restrict e-waste exports and state governments are limiting e-waste in landfills. While US recyclers have begun the task of managing e-waste, it could take 40 to 50 years to recycle at current rates of recycling. Of the 3,321 US recycling companies only 78 provide some form of shredding, and none can process both white ware and eScrap at the rates that the eCycling USA/Adelmann system can.

eCycling USA™ is licensed by Adelmann Unwelt GmbH of Germany to implement “turnkey” e-waste plants in the USA. Adelmann is the world leader in manufacturing and providing turnkey recycling systems that reduce e-waste to commodity powders and pellets. 60 Adelmann plants are operational in Europe. There are no comparable plants in America that shred both white ware (e.g., refrigerators) and eScrap (e.g., computers), and decompose this e-waste into raw materials (copper, aluminum, iron, plastics, etc.). eCycling USA systems can shred an appliance as large as a refrigerator in minutes into pellets or powders. These pellets/powders are aggregated by raw material type and packaged for sale to commodity buyers. eCycling USA’s processes are accomplished in a closed environment to prevent any leakage, like CFCs, into the environment. A total of 100 plants are envisioned with a substantial amount of plant manufacturing accomplished in the USA.

Strategic Partnerships. eCycling USA is seeking strategic partnerships for locating the first 10 plants for US metropolitan areas. These plants are capable of processing 10 tons/hour of e-waste. The cost of a plant is $30 million, of which eCycling USA will provide $14 million, leaving $16 million of debt or equity financing for strategic partners and investors. Turnkey plants can be constructed within nine months on one acre of land in an 80,000 square foot building with 40 foot ceilings. eCycling USA has located numerous brown-field (e.g., vacant warehouses) sites in several major US metropolitan areas and has commitments by local government officials to expedite permitting as well as providing grants for infrastructure improvements. A typical plant will be capable of employing 500 personnel.

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Jobenomics Harlem

Jobenomics deals with the economics of business, job, wealth and revenue creation with a goal of 20 million new private sector jobs by 2020. The Jobenomics movement commenced with Chuck Vollmer’s book, which was written to illuminate economic challenges, start a grassroots 20 by 20 campaign, and implement scalable business creation initiatives, like Jobenomics-Harlem.

Jobenomics-Harlem is an effort to create one thousand (1,000) new businesses per year in Harlem with emphasis on small and self-employed businesses, and providing financing to the base of Harlem’s economic pyramid.

Jobenomics-Harlem is led by Michel J. Faulkner. Faulkner is the founder of the Institute for Leadership (http://institute4leadership.com) located in Harlem. IFL is focused on leadership development in the 15th District of New York. The non-profit Institute for Leadership seeks to ensure tomorrow by making better leaders today. In 2010, Faulkner secured the Republic nomination for the Congressional campaign for the 15^th District of New York (Harlem). Faulkner ran on a Jobenomics “Jobs Now” platform, which received significant local, state and national attention. He also serves as a Board Member for NYC Department of Youth and Community Assistance, and a consultant for the state’s Health Foundation’s Statewide Diabetes Campaign.

Jobenomics has partnered with IFL to create a community-based business “generator” for business implementation and financing. The community-based Jobenomics-Harlem business generator is designed to mass produce businesses in various industry sectors. Once operational, Jobenomics-Harlem will add a business “incubator” as revenues come on line. A business incubator creates individual (as opposed to mass production) of entrepreneurial-based businesses. One of the major accomplishments of the Jobenomics-Harlem effort to date is a $20 million fund from ACCION USA for micro-business loans up to $50,000 for each new business created by the business generator.

The Jobenomics-Harlem business generator is implementing business plans for the following:

E-waste operation. Jobenomics/eCycling USA is implementing a plan for a turnkey electronic and white ware waste plant to process raw materials that can be easily sold on the commodities market. 60 plants are currently operational in Europe. 10% of the eCycling-Harlem profits ($1 to $3 million/year) will be dedicated to funding the Jobenomics-Harlem business generator as well as producing 500 jobs and many new businesses in computer refurbishment and collection services.

Energy audit and weatherization certification and business creation center. The Jobenomics/Home Energy Team will provide certification training and function as a one-stop solution for homeowners to improve energy efficiency, renovate residential properties and install alternative energy (solar) solutions. This effort plans to certify 400 personnel per year and create 100 businesses annually.

Cloud Computing training and business certification center. Jobenomics/ACTS Institute will administer cloud computing educational services to assist individuals to prepare for new career opportunities, and start new cloud computing small and self-employed businesses. The first Jobenomics-Harlem class is projected to start in January 2012 with a class of 50 to 100 students. Each student will graduate with his/her own Google business. This effort plans to certify 1000 personnel per year and create 500 to 1,000 self-employed and small businesses annually.

Direct-care center focusing on healthcare and elder-care markets. Jobenomics-MetroCore will fund and create a direct-care center using full- and part-time personnel via a Harlem-based call center connecting small and self-employed businesses to satisfy in-home client needs. This effort plans to train 1,000 personnel per year and create 100s of new self-employed businesses annually. Jobenomics-IFL has already started a health-care program focused on diabetes services.

Jobenomics Harlem Video (3 mins)

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Recent US Employment Trends

In January 2008, total US employment was 138.0 million. By January 2010, the Great Recession caused the loss of 8.7 million jobs. As of November 2011, only 2.4 million jobs were created since the beginning of this decade (1 Jan 10). Government (mainly local and municipal governments) shed approximately ½ million jobs as shown. Whereas, the private sector generated 2,548,000 jobs in service-providing and 336,000 jobs in goods-producing industries respectively. While this is good news, America continues to have a 58% jobs shortfall as measured by the traditional economic benchmark of 250,000 jobs per month to achieve economic recovery.

From a Jobenomics perspective the three most important employment sectors include private sector service-providing industries, private sector goods-producing industries, and the government sector (federal, state and local). Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data, private sector service-providing industries, is the only sector that contributes to meaningful jobs creation with 106.7% increase relative to the total number of jobs produced. Looking at the total private sector (service-providing and goods-producing), 99% of new jobs were generated by small business whereas only 1% by large business as shown.

From a Jobenomics perspective, America’s near term emphasis should be on small businesses in the service-providing industries with emphasis on professional, business, information, financial, trade, transportation, utilities, leisure and hospitality services which have sustained strong to moderate growth over the last three decades as well as post recession. If the US government and American people had placed greater emphasis on these small businesses, as opposed to large financial institutions and big businesses, the number of new American jobs may have doubled or tripled since the end of the Great Recession.

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Self Employment Screen

Welcome to the Jobenomics “Self-Employment Screen“.

“20 Million Jobs by 2020″.

What is the Self-Employment Screen (SES)? The SES analyzes the key inherent characteristics and attitudes that influence entrepreneurial success and can help predict which of the four major entrepreneurial business environments a person is most naturally suited to: agent/representative, consulting/contract, franchises or small business.

The SES does not pre-judge whether someone should be self-employed. Rather, it provides the person interested in becoming self-employed with insights into her/his business development style, motivational factors, developmental needs and the type of self-employment that she/he would be most naturally suited to.

A copy of the SES report is provided online immediately upon completion of the survey.

For your complimentary assessment to determine the best type of opportunity fit for you, click here: Take the Self-EmploymentScreen™

Veterans

If you are a Veteran, we invite you to complete the CareerManagementPro™.

This profile will provide you with key insights into yourself and your personal strengths as you make important career decisions.

To begin this assessment, please click here: CareerManagementPro™ for Veterans

More Information

For more details and to purchase available profiles, please click here.

To hire small business coaches, contact: Hugh Ballou or Micro Biz Coach

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5 Million Government Layoffs Ahead?

Recent US Employment Trends addressed the three most important employment sectors: private sector service-providing industries, private sector goods-producing industries, and the government sector. This article examines the government sector in more detail and hypothesizes how many more job losses could occur in the near future.

2012 will be a pivotal year for the US economy. For 2012, Jobenomics assesses the following probabilities: 20% chance that the economy will improve, 30% that it will continue to muddle along, and 50% it will get worse depending on the severity of financial disruptions (see 2012 Jobenomics Outlook article). Given this 50/50 forecast, Jobenomics forecasts that the current government trend of government layoffs will continue.

The Jobenomics plan calls for creation of 20 million new private sector jobs with emphasis on small, emerging and self-employed businesses in service-providing industries in order to generate a robust economic recovery. Our plan also calls for zero government growth as opposed to cuts in government employment. However, since the US is creating new jobs at only 45% of what is needed (see Recent US Employment Trends) reductions in the government workforce appear inevitable. A drop of 5.4 million government jobs is our best guess given current economic conditions and trends. It is our hope that these reductions will not occur if the economy improves on its own, or is nudged by the Jobenomics national grassroots movement.

Local Government Civilians: 2 million potential job reductions.

State and local governments have been shedding jobs for the last three years. This trend will likely accelerate and perhaps double from the current rate of 250,000 (see BLS/CBPP chart) to as much as 500,000 layoffs per year. There are four major reasons for this assertion. The first reason deals with decreased discretionary income due to unemployment, under-employment, and declining middle-class wages and net-worth. Decreased discretionary income translates to reduced consumption and lower government tax revenues. Second, federal stimulus funding has ended and new stimulus funding is unlikely. Third, non-essential state, municipal and local programs and services have already been cut. Future cuts are likely to involve personnel. Fourth, reduced property tax revenues will be a major new factor with local governments that are responsible for 82% of all recent government sector layoffs.

Property taxes are the main source of tax revenues for municipal and local governments. Because it takes years to process property assessments, the collapse in housing values are just now beginning to impact local governments at a time when federal and state aid are ending. Most local governments predict that their tax base, generated by residential and commercial property taxes, will shrink consistently each year over the next five years.

Since the Great Recession of 2008, when tax revenues from inflated property values and federal/state aid were plentiful, local governments were compelled to shed hundreds of thousands of jobs. Today times are much worse financially. Rainy-day funds have been largely depleted. Cuts in non-essential programs and services mostly have been made. Without a robust US economic recovery, a perfect storm is brewing where local governments may have to make deep cuts in essential services including teachers, police and firefighters. Since education constitutes 56% of local government employment, teachers will be particularity hard hit.

In the last two years, local government jobs decreased from 14,498,000 to 14,078,000, a loss of 420,000 jobs or 1.45% per year. Due to the shrinking tax base, it is likely that this rate could increase to 3%, resulting in 2 million job losses over five years.

State Government Civilians: 340,000 potential job reductions. Over the last three years, states had budget shortfalls of $430 billion. State governments rely heavily on sales taxes, income taxes, business taxes, excise taxes and tuitions for state-funded universities. All of these sources of tax revenues are likely to increase, which should keep state layoffs to the minimum. On the other hand, increasing entitlement (Medicaid) and welfare expenses, dwindling federal subsidies, persistently high unemployment rates, and a sluggish economy make balanced budgets a difficult goal for the 42 states that are projecting a $110 billion budget shortfall in 2012.

In the last twelve months, state government jobs decreased from 5,144,000 to 5,073,000, a loss of 71,000 jobs or – 1.4%. While states have the capability of raising many forms of taxes, Jobenomics predicts that voters reject most of the legislative efforts to increase taxes. Without additional tax revenue, states will continue to reduce its public sector workforce. Consequently, it is likely that the -1.4% trend will continue and 340,000 jobs will be lost over the next five years.

Federal Government Civilians: 300,000 potential job reductions. In the last twelve months, federal government employment decreased from 2,844,000 to 2,817,000, a loss of 27,000 jobs or – 0.9%. This modest rate is likely to increase due to budget and deficit concerns. There are growing calls from Congressional conservatives that the US federal government should reduce size by as much as 10%. While opposed, Congressional liberals are faced with a dilemma justifying high federal government salaries in relation to growing needs of the unemployed and other financially challenged groups. Jobenomics predicts that federal civilian workforce reductions (not including the US Postal Service and DoD Civilians) will average 2.5% over the next five years, which would result in 170,000 job losses.

612,000 US Postal Services employees are federal employees. In the last twelve months, the postal service lost 30,700 jobs, or 4.8% of its workforce. Due to inefficiencies within the postal service, private sector competition and increased use of email, this trend is likely to continue at its current rate for a loss of 130,000 jobs in five years.

US Military: 435,000 potential job reductions. The Department of Defense (DoD) is comprised of 1,430,895 active duty, 848,000 reserve, and 779,000 federal civilian employees for a total of 3.1 million personnel. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is considering reductions once thought sacrosanct. Planned cuts of $450 billion will reduce the military budget by 7% to 8%. According to Panetta, “Rough estimates suggest after ten years of these cuts, we would have the smallest ground force since 1940, the smallest number of ships since 1915, and the smallest Air Force in its history.” SecDef’s forecast does not include $600 billion of other potential congressionally mandated DoD reductions which could increase DoD cuts to approximately 20%. $600 billion is half of the potential $1.2 trillion sequestration amount.

Priority currently is being placed on cutting weapons programs, but in the end, manpower will have to be reduced since it is the largest component of the national security budget. Due to annual trillion dollar budget deficits, a flagging economy, priority given to mandatory accounts (Social Security, Medicare) over discretionary accounts (National Security), attrition of returning Iraqi and Afghani veterans on top of normal attrition, rising personnel and retirement costs, and inflation, the DoD is a prime target for severe cuts in manpower.

Jobenomics estimates that the US military and civilian workforce is likely to decrease at an annual rate of 3% per year over the next five years. If this occurs, 435,000 positions will be lost.

Government Contractors: 2.3 million potential job reductions. Exact numbers of government contractors are hard to obtain. So Jobenomics accessed data from USAspending.gov which provides the public with information about how their tax dollars are spent. According to USAspending.gov, in fiscal year 2011, the US federal government’s direct payment to federal government civilian contractors was $895 billion. Jobenomics estimates the approximate number of federal contractor employees by dividing their estimated average wage and benefits of $120,000 (triple the median private sector wage, but equal to the average federal government civilian pay) into $895 billion, which equals 7.4 million federal contractor employees. While the number of state and local civilian contractors jobs are unknown, it is safe to assume at least 2.6 million (1/3 of federal contractor jobs), for a total of 10 million government (federal, state, local) civilian employees.

Due the size of budget deficits at all levels of government (federal, state and local), 5% cuts are likely for federal contractors over the next five years, resulting in the loss of 2.3 million jobs.

Cuts of this magnitude would cause a crisis for defense and aerospace industries. While national security enthusiasts will vigorously resist the magnitude of these cuts, similar defense industry cutbacks occurred after WWII, Vietnam, and the Cold War. Cold War spending was replaced by the so-called “Peace Dividend” which reduced military expenditures as a percent of GDP by approximately 50% over ten years. Considering the severity of annual trillion dollar budget deficits, and a potential post-Iraq/Afghanistan peace dividend, it is conceivable that massive defense contractor reductions could occur in a period of five years, if the US economy does not significantly improve soon.

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Dropping Unemployment Rates?

There is little reason to celebrate the dropping unemployment rate because it is largely a numerical illusion. Yes, the number of people unemployed has dropped consistently over the last four months. However, the ranks of people that have quit looking for work swelled by an equal amount.

This chart is derived from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-1, Employment Status of the Civilian Population. It shows from 30 September 2011 to 31 December 2011 the official unemployment rate (U3) dropped from 9.0% to 8.5%, which equates to a decline of 0.5% or 597,000 people. However, the same table also shows an increase of 630,000 people who joined the ranks of the “Not in Labor Force” category. According the BLS, “the labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as “not in the labor force.”” Consequently, 33,000 more people have joined the no job-not looking category as opposed to being simply being unemployed.

From a Jobenomics perspective, the “functional” unemployment rate (see The 35% “Functionally” Unemployed Rate article) remains at 35% as shown below.

Jobenomics has consistently advocated using employment numbers, rather than unemployment, as a measure of economic health. As shown above, unemployment numbers and rates can be confusing. Policy-makers and opinion-leaders need a better yard stick for reporting and decision-making. Rather than reporting on a “glass half empty” (unemployment), we should focus on a “glass half full” (employment). Those who are employed are the ones who are contributing to economic growth (see Too Few Pay For Too Many).

Using the same Table A-1, the employment picture has improved by 683,000 over the last four months. Using the same metrics as we did with unemployment numbers, the civilian labor force decreased 117,000, so the net change is +566,000, which is good news. If we subtracted increases in population growth (200,000 new US citizens, not shown), the net would be +366,000, which is a reason to celebrate.

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Manufacturing/Construction Forecast

Our Recent US Employment Trends article indentified the three most important US employment sectors: private sector service-providing industries, private sector goods-producing industries, and the government sector. This article examines private sector goods-producing industries with emphasis on manufacturing and construction industries.

As discussed in our 30-Year US Employment Trends article, US private sector goods-producing industries have deteriorated by 25% over the last three decades. If adjusted for US population growth deterioration of this sector exceeds 50%. In lieu of a significantly improved US economy, Jobenomics forecasts that goods-producing industries decline may stabilize but will produce few, if any, new private sector jobs in the near future.

Private sector goods-producing industries include: Manufacturing (11.8 million jobs), Construction (5.5 million), Nondurable goods (4.4 million), and Mining/Logging (700,000 jobs). Manufacturing and construction are the two largest and most influential categories.

Manufacturing. US manufacturing hit its peak in 1979 with 19.43 million jobs. Today, US manufacturing only employs 11.71 million people, a 40% decline from its peak in 1979 and the lowest since 1941. As a percent of population, manufacturing has suffered a 55% decline (the US population in 2011 is 312M, compared to 225M in 1979). As shown by the very small uptick on the chart, manufacturing has increased 1.6% over the last year for at total 189,000 jobs. While this good news, the big question is will this micro-trend continue?

From a Jobenomics perspective, manufacturing is not, and, will not be a significant contributor to US employment in the next five years. 189,000 yearly jobs equates to a monthly average of 16,000 jobs. Measured against the traditional benchmark of 250,000 monthly jobs needed for economic recovery, 16,000 jobs equates to a meager 6% contribution. Looking back to the start of the Great Recession (January 2008), manufacturing is down by almost 2 million jobs, so this recent uptick is relatively insignificant.

From a more strategic perspective, major corporations are the driving-force for manufacturing employment. These corporations are disinclined towards hiring domestic workers and will likely remain so disposed in the near future. The chief reason is US economic uncertainty. As long as US GDP muddles along at near stall speed with storm clouds on the horizon, corporations will continue to be reluctant to retool or build new plants. Instead, cash-rich corporations will continue to invest their trillions of dollars worth of cash reserves in overseas emerging markets (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and other countries that have robust GDP growth) and in the financial markets. US government over-regulation, high US labor rates and unions, makes foreign manufacturing much more appealing than domestic pursuits. While there is a lot of political rhetoric about reducing regulation and promoting exports, it is likely that nothing meaningful will happen anytime soon. Devaluation of the US dollar has been helpful making US exports more competitive overseas, but devaluation adds to corporate uncertainty as well as poor consumer and investor confidence. Unemployment and aging population are also factors. 78 million baby-boomers are likely to spend more on services than big-ticket manufactured items.

Construction. The US construction industry employs 5.5 million Americas in three sectors: residential (2M jobs or 37% of the total construction industry), nonresidential (2.7M or 48% of total), and heavy & civil engineering (843,000 or 15% of total). Nonresidential deals mainly with commercial properties. Heavy & Civil Engineering deals mainly with infrastructure projects, like highways, bridges, and dams.

Since the employment peak in the mid to late 2000s, the overall commercial industry declined 40%. During the same time period, residential construction declined a whopping 71%, nonresidential declined 30%, and heavy & civil engineering declined 20%. Over the last year, the overall construction industry has stabilized with only minor losses of jobs. From a Jobenomics perspective, this recent period of stabilization is temporary with more jobs losses in the near future, unless the US economy significantly rebounds, investor confidence markedly improves, and financial institutions make credit more accessible to builders. None of these three conditions appear likely in 2012.

Residential is currently the driving-force in the construction industry. The Great Recession was caused mainly by the housing bubble burst. In the wake of the Great Recession, housing prices collapsed. As shown above, homes in the top 20 US cities lost 33% of their value. Some metropolitan areas, like Washington DC, fared slightly better (-27%) largely due to the federal government. On the other end of the scale, Las Vegas was hammered with -61% losses. While home values seemed to stabilize briefly in 2009-2010, the top 20 city composite index lost 3.4% in 2011.

The 2012 residential housing market forecast is cloudy. Foreclosures, underwater mortgages, delinquencies, and strategic defaults (walking away from home mortgages) are still major challenges. Conversely, home affordability is now more in par with renting. Buyers who have stayed on the sidelines may return to the market. However, buyers are aware of the fact the home prices could continue to fall. A new wave of foreclosures is predicted as banks begin to release their plentiful inventory of reprocessed homes. According to some economists, home prices could fall as much as 25%, which, in turn, would keep the residential construction industry depressed.

The commercial and heavy construction industries are poised for a period of growth. However, McGraw-Hill Construction, a mainstay in construction industry forecasting, predicts that 2012 construction starts will remain flat. Significant upsides in private sector construction financing (plants, warehouses, hotels, and commercial buildings) will be offset by large declines in public sector construction projects funded by municipal, state and federal governments. New public sector projects like school, healthcare, electric utility and other public works programs (bridges, parks, roads) are problematic due to fiscal constraints at all levels of government. In addition, new industry entrants face challenges with access to capital. Strict lending standards exclude many general contractors from being eligible for loans.

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2012 Jobenomics Outlook

Jobenomics predicts that 2012 will be a tough year for the US economy, unemployment, and business/jobs creation. The biggest bright spot is small business which, contrary to popular opinion, is now the engine of the American economy as discussed in an earlier Jobenomics article entitled, Small Business: The New “Big Dog”.

US Economy. From a Jobenomics perspective, there are three US economic scenarios: V, W, L (see: Economic Recovery Scenarios article). A V-shaped recovery occurs when the market rebounds after hitting bottom, and returns to its previous high. Eight out of nine US recoveries after a recession have been V-shaped. A W-shaped recovery, also known as a double-dip, happens when the economy rebounds, retreats, and rebounds again. W-shaped scenarios happened during the Great Depression and in the 1975 and 1982 era. An L-shaped recovery indicates a stagnant economy whereas a declining-L symbolizes a declining economy. Japan is undergoing a declining-L scenario for the last two decades. European economies in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are declining to the point of potential economic collapse. As far as America, Jobenomics believes that an equal case can be made for each scenario and that the US economy could take very different paths depending on the American entrepreneurial spirit, leadership decisions, and how our country navigates future disruptions and crises.

Our weakened economic situation makes America vulnerable. The past two years have been relatively free of major disruptions, which allowed our economy to grow, albeit very slowly. If a major event or multiple cascading events happen, a severe recession or a depression is plausible. Potential internal disruptions include: debt or deficit crisis at all levels of government, energy crisis, a wave of strategic defaults in the housing sector, unrest due to unemployment, as well as known and potential unknown “black swan” events, like 9/11. As far as external disruptions, the US economy is far more interdependent and vulnerable to foreign financial crises and conflicts than any time in recent history. Eurozone crisis, Iranian crisis, new wars and conflicts, terrorism and cyber attacks are all possible foreign disrupters.

Unemployment. Jobenomics predicts that the “functional” unemployment rate of 35%, or 111 million US citizens who unemployed/underemployed/no longer looking will continue to rise as the middle-class erodes and the jobless exhaust their unemployment benefits and join those “not in the labor force” (see: 35% “Functionally” Unemployed Rate article). The “official” (U3) unemployment rate will likely increase to the 9% to 9.5% range, or even exceed 10% if a major financial disruption occurs. The primary reason for seeing unemployment increase rather decrease is due to America’s preoccupation with symptoms rather than the cure. Unemployment is a symptom. Employment, via business/job creation is the cure.

Business/Jobs creation. Jobenomics predicts that America will continue to produce only half of the jobs needed (see: Recent US Employment Trends) since it is preoccupied with top-down government and big business solutions. Since January 2010, small business is responsible for 99% of all new jobs created in the US (see: Small Business Produces 99% of Jobs). The US government sector will lose 3% of its workforce per year over the next five years for a total of 5.4 million lost jobs (see: 5 Million Government Layoffs Ahead?). US good-producing industries, dominated by large manufacturing and construction firms, may stabilize from their precipitous decline in recent years, but will produce few, if any, new private sector jobs in the near future (see: Manufacturing/Construction Forecast).

Engaging the American entrepreneurial spirit will be paramount to economic recovery regardless of scenario or outlook. The Jobenomics 20 by 20 Campaign plan calls for 20 million new private sector jobs by year 2020. 18 million are generated by small, emerging and self-employed businesses, 2 million from large US businesses, and zero growth in US federal, state and local government employment. Jobs creation will be dominated by the private sector service-providing industries that are dominated by small business.

Core to the Jobenomics concept is business creation with emphasis on small, emerging and self-employed businesses that are the engine of the US economy and principal employer of 70% of all American workers. To achieve the Jobenomics’ goal of 20 million new jobs by 2020, America needs to redirect its focus from government and big business solutions to small enterprise growth. As shown below, since the beginning of this decade, very small business (1-49 employees) have consistently produced the most jobs and weathered two recessions as well as small, medium and large businesses.

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Jobenomics

Goal: Creating 20 Million Jobs By 2020

Monthly Archives: January 2012

Jobenomics Veterans Center(s)

Jobenomics Mining Initiative

Big-3 Potential 2012 Disruptors

Jobenomics Women-Owned Businesses Initiative

Jobenomics Institute

Jobenomics E-Waste Program

Jobenomics Harlem

Recent US Employment Trends

Self Employment Screen

5 Million Government Layoffs Ahead?

Dropping Unemployment Rates?

Manufacturing/Construction Forecast

2012 Jobenomics Outlook