Jobenomics tracks both unemployment (see: Unemployment Scoreboard: April 2012) and employment (this posting).
The Jobenomics employment goal for this decade is to create 20 million new US private sector jobs. Since 1 Jan 2010,
- The US has produced a total of 3,502,000 new jobs, a 48% shortfall of what is needed as measured by the traditional benchmark of 250,000 new jobs per month.
- The private sector produced 3,984,000 jobs. 94.3% were created by small business. 83.5% were in service-providing industries. Manufacturing contributed 10.7%.
- The government sector lost 482,000 jobs, most (82%) government job losses occurred at the local level.
Per the above chart, while the US has enjoyed steady employment growth since the beginning of this decade, America is only producing half as many jobs as needed (48% shortfall). Between 1 Jan 2010 and 1 April 2012, the US produced only 3,502,000 jobs compared to the 6,750,000 jobs needed as measured against the traditional benchmark of 250,000 jobs per month. Of the three employment sectors reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the government sector lost 482,000 jobs, the private sector’s service-providing industries created 3,454,000 jobs and the private sector’s goods-producing industries created 530,000 jobs.
Private Sector Statistics. Today, the US private sector employs a total of 110.5 million people. As shown, 92.3M (83.5%) are in service-providing industries and 18.2M (16.5%) goods-producing industries. Manufacturing (a sector of the goods-producing supersector) employed 11.78M or 10.7% of the private sector workforce.
Service-providing sector. The US service-providing sector has grown 80% over the last three decades and averaged 4% growth since the beginning of this decade.
Employment statistics for industries in this sector are ranked by the number of jobs created between 1 Jan 2010 and 1 Apr 2012:
- Professional/business services: 17,789,000 employees, 1,320,000 jobs created, growth rate 8%.
- Education and health services: 20,213,000 employees, 863,000 jobs created, growth rate 4%.
- Trade, transportation, utilities: 25,206,000 employees, 644,000 jobs created, growth rate 3%.
- Leisure and hospitality: 13,587,000 employees, 654,000 jobs created, growth rate 5%.
- Financial activities: 7,721,000 employees, 42,000 jobs created, growth rate 0.5%.
- Other services: 5,362,000 employees, 40,000 jobs created, growth rate 1%.
- Information: 2,624,000 employees, -117,000 jobs lost, growth rate -4%.
Goods-producing sector. The good-producing sector currently has 18,283,000 employees, created 499,000 new jobs this decade with a 3% growth rate. Employment statistics for industries in this sector are ranked by the number of jobs created between 1 Jan 2010 and 1 Mar 2012:
- Mining and logging: 835,000 employees, 171,000 jobs created, growth rate 26%.
- Construction: 5,551,000 employees, -103,000 jobs lost, growth rate -2%.
- Manufacturing: 11,928,000 employees, 462,000 jobs created, growth rate 4%.
While manufacturing has improved over the last 27 months, it has a long way to go (see chart). Since the total employment of mining industries (oil & gas extraction, coal and minerals mining, logging) is only 7% the size of manufacturing, an increase of 171,000 jobs is significant with a two-year growth rate of 26% versus 4% for manufacturing (see: Jobenomics Mining Initiative). It also should be noted that the majority of the job gains in the goods-producing industries, including manufacturing, were created by small businesses with less than 500 employees.
Government Sector Statistics. The total government sector currently has 21,986,000 employees, lost 493,000 new jobs this decade with a negative 2% growth rate. Employment statistics for entities in this sector are ranked by the number of jobs lost between 1 Jan 2010 and 1 Mar 2012:
- Local government: 14,106,000 employees, 395,000 jobs lost, growth rate -3%.
- State government: 5,065,000 employees, 83,000 jobs lost, growth rate -2%.
- Federal government: 2,826,000 employees, 4,000 jobs lost, growth rate -0.1%.
The government sector continued to lose jobs with 79.9% of all job losses occurring at the local level, 18.3% at the state level and 1.8% in the federal government. Jobenomics predicts that government job losses will continue to decline and accelerate at the federal and local levels especially if the US economy suffers an economic disruption due to either domestic or foreign events (see: 5 Million Government Layoffs Ahead?).
The Jobenomics “20 by 20” goal is to create 20 million new private sector jobs by year 2020. To achieve 20 million jobs in a decade, the US needs to create 167,000 jobs per month (20 million/120 months). As of 1 Apr 2012, the US should have generated 4,509,000 private sector jobs. Measured against the Jobenomics benchmark of 167K jobs/month, America is producing jobs at a rate between 74% (3,325,000 jobs per ADP National Employment Report data) and 88% (3,984,000 jobs per Bureau of Labor Statistics data). Considering the sluggish US economy, this is a relatively good picture. However, the Jobenomics team is holding with its 2012 forecast that the US economy has a 50% chance of turning for the worse due to potential domestic and foreign disruptions, such as a war or an energy crisis with Iran as well as continued issues in the Eurozone.
Of the 3,325,000 private sector jobs created per the ADP National Employment Report (the BLS does not report on small versus large business), 95.0% of all new jobs were produced by small businesses with less than 500 employees. Large businesses produced only 5.0% of all new jobs. Very small business with less than 50 employees accounted for 46.7% of new jobs.
